1960-2019年西南岩溶区旱涝时空演变特征  

Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Drought and Flood in the Southwest Karst Area from 1960 to 2019

作　　者：靖娟利 徐勇 王永锋 窦世卿 殷敏 JING Juanli;XU Yong;WANG Yongfeng;DOU Shiqing;YIN Min(College of Geomatics and Geoinformation,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin,Guangxi 541004,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics,Guilin,Guangxi 541004,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院,广西桂林541004 [2]广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2021年第5期179-186,共8页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：广西八桂学者专项项目;国家自然科学基金项目(42061059);广西自然科学资助项目(2020GXNSFBA297160);广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室资助项目(16-380-25-08)。

摘　　要：针对西南岩溶区旱涝灾害频繁发生的现象,基于1960—2019年68个气象站点逐月降水观测资料,计算多个时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI),并采用ANUSPLIN气象插值方法、Sen-Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和Hurst指数,研究了近60年西南岩溶区旱涝时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)不同时间尺度的SPI反映的旱涝等级及频率具有一定差异性,旱涝等级以轻—中等为主;(2)年尺度SPI呈不显著下降趋势,整体呈现出由雨涝向干旱变化的趋势;春、秋两季SPI呈不显著下降趋势(p>0.05),夏、冬两季SPI呈不显著上升趋势(p>0.05);(3)年尺度SPI以下降趋势为主,集中分布在云南、贵州、重庆和湖北等地区;季节SPI空间变化趋势具有一定差异性,春、夏、秋三季SPI以下降趋势为主,冬季SPI以上升趋势为主,但绝大部分区域变化趋势不显著(p>0.05);(4) SPI呈持续上升的区域占39.76%,集中分布在四川、云南、广东、广西等地区;呈持续下降的区域占50.33%,主要分布在云南、贵州和重庆。研究结果可以为区域旱涝预警、制定减灾应对策略等方面提供依据。In view of frequent occurrence of drought and flood in southwest karst area, the multiscale Standard Precipitation Index(SPI) was calculated based on monthly precipitation data derived from sixty-eight meteorological stations from 1960 to 2019. The spatial and temporal variation of SPI from 1960—2019 were quantitively analyzed by using ANUSPLIN meteorological interpolation method, Sen-Median method, Mann-Kendall test, and Hurst index. Results showed that:(1) there were some differences of drought and flood levels and frequencies among SPI at different time scales, and the levels of drought and flood were mainly dominated by light and medium;(2) the annual SPI showed an insignificant declining trend and had a changing trend from waterlogging to drought;the changing trend of seasonal SPI had some differences, SPI had an insignificant decrease trend in spring and autumn(p>0.05), but an insignificant increasing trend in summer and winter was observed(p>0.05);(3) the annual SPI presented a downward trend, spatially concentrated in Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Hubei and other regions;the spatial variation of seasonal SPI exhibited certain difference;SPI mainly showed a downward trend in spring, summer and autumn, while an upward trend was found in winter;however, the trends of most regions were not significant(p>0.05);(4) SPI with a continuous increasing accounted for 39.76% at the study area, mainly concentrated in Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi, whereas SPI with a continuous decreasing accounted for 50.33%, mainly distributed in Yunnan, Guizhou and Chongqing. The results of this study can provide the basis for regional drought and flood warning and disaster mitigation strategies making.

关 键 词：SPI 西南岩溶区 趋势分析 MANN-KENDALL检验 HURST指数 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]