中美贸易摩擦及新冠疫情对上海经济增长的影响  

Impacts of Sino-US Trade Friction and the COVID-19 Pandemic on Shanghai Economic Growth:A Modeling Scenario Analysis

作　　者：孙林[1] Sun Lin(Institute of Applied Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai,200020)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《上海经济》2021年第4期56-74,共19页Shanghai Economy

摘　　要：本文利用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型模拟分析了中美贸易摩擦及新冠疫情对上海经济增长的影响。模拟分析的重点是中美贸易摩擦引起的上海对国际市场出口和对国内市场调出的减少,以及贸易摩擦常态化和突发新冠疫情连锁效应可能导致全球产业链重建、形成外资撤离趋势所引发的上海制造业产能萎缩。结果表明,由于上海经济与国际经济、国内经济的独特贸易关系,即使中美贸易摩擦造成国际市场出口和国内市场调出的减少,对上海经济增长也仅产生有限的影响。如果中美贸易摩擦高关税常态化和新冠疫情影响效应叠加,形成外资企业撤离的趋势并导致上海主要制造业的产能萎缩,则将对上海经济增长产生广泛且深刻的影响。研究如何营造开放和良好的营商环境、对冲中美贸易摩擦和新冠疫情影响的政策措施,是今后一个时期政府决策部门所面临的重要问题之一。This paper uses a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to simulate Sino-US trade friction and the COVID-19 pandemic's effects on Shanghai's growth.We focus on reducing exports and transfers to ROC(rest of China)and the possible shrinking of production capacity caused by trade friction and the COVID-19 pandemic.Our results show that due to the unique trade relationship between Shanghai,the world market,and ROC,even if a reduction in exports and transfers to ROC,will only have a limited impact on Shanghai's economic growth.The decline in Shanghai's major manufacturing industries'production capacity will profoundly affect the Shanghai economy.Under the resonance of the impact of the Sino-US trade friction and the effect of the COVID-19 epidemic,preventing the shrinking of manufacturing capacity will be a significant challenge for the Shanghai economy.

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 新冠疫情 上海经济增长 CGE 模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]