基于动态博弈模型的房地产供应链研究  

Research on the Supply Chain of Real Estate Market Based on a Dynamic Game Model

作　　者：林晨 LIN Chen(School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610065)

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《供应链管理》2021年第6期11-19,共9页SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

摘　　要：文章探究房地产供应链的市场结构如何影响房地产市场价格和供应链利润。先构建一个两阶段动态博弈模型,在开发商个数小于4时,推导出开发面积、市场价格的纳什均衡表达式,进而提出开发商个数大于4时开发面积和市场价格的推导方法,然后通过参数赋值,分析在不同开发商个数和市场规模下,房地产市场价格、供应链利润和开发商层级利润比例的变化趋势。结果显示,增加开发商数量有利于降低房价,并且能提高房地产供应链的总利润,但由于加剧了开发商间的竞争,开发商对利润的分配能力被削弱,开发商层级的利润占比下降;扩大市场规模会助长房价上升,大城市具备比小城市更大的市场规模,大城市里的房地产供应链总利润更大,大城市的开发商在与供应商博弈过程中,有更大的获利空间,层级利润更多。得到结论:开发商规模的扩大有助于遏止房价上涨,营造公平的竞争环境。This paper builds a two-stage dynamic game model to study real estate supply chain.First,the Nash equilibrium expressions of development area and material prices are derived when developers are not more than four.When it comes to cases that developers are more than four,the derivation method is given.Through value assignment,three indicators,namely real estate prices,real estate supply chain profits and developers’profits share,are analyzed in different cases.Several conclusions are drawn.Both increasing the number of developers and reducing market size lead to the decline of real estate prices.Increasing the number of developers increases real estate supply chain profits.It also brings more fierce competition among developers and weakens developers’ability to share profits.Since market sizes in big cities are larger than those in small cities,real estate supply chains usually have greater profits in big cities than they do in small ones.And developers’profits shares in big cities are also usually bigger than in small cities.It explains why developers are more likely to grow up in big cities,and why real estate industries in big cities seems more attractive to investment compared with those in small cities.

关 键 词：供应链 动态博弈 供应链利润 开发商利润 房地产市场 

分 类 号：F252.3[经济管理—国民经济]