基于多阶段贝叶斯网络法的脐带缆全寿命周期可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis of umbilical in full lifecycle based on phase mission system Bayesian network method

作　　者：张洲 夏冉 郑利军 马国印 张玉[1] ZHANG Zhou;XIA Ran;ZHENG Lijun;MA Guoyin;ZHANG Yu(College of Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102200,China;CNOOC Research Institute,Beijing 100027,China;Offshore Oil Engineering CO.LTD,Tianjin 300450,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院,北京102200 [2]中海油研究总院,北京100027 [3]海洋石油工程股份有限公司,天津300450

出　　处：《海洋工程》2021年第4期124-133,共10页The Ocean Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0307201)。

摘　　要：脐带缆是深海油气开发的关键设备之一,主要由钢管单元、电缆单元、光缆单元、护套及铠装单元组成。脐带缆在全寿命周期经过设计制造、储存、安装、在位运行、修复阶段,其每个阶段的可靠性并不是某个常数,而是随时间变化的函数,因此有必要对脐带缆全寿命周期可靠性的变化进行分析。建立某气田水下脐带缆在储存、安装、在位运行阶段的故障树模型,将其转化为多阶段贝叶斯网络模型进行建模分析,基于OREDA手册数据,假设部件寿命服从指数分布,对脐带缆存储、安装、在位运行阶段的可靠性进行分析,得到不同阶段脐带缆可靠性的变化曲线,并与可靠性框图方法进行对比分析。同时,通过引入条件可靠性对该方法进行了优化,分析脐带缆修复后的可靠性变化,以及对脐带缆关键部件进行重要度分析,针对薄弱环节提出改进措施。可靠性分析可为水下脐带缆的安全运行提供技术支持,同时也为海洋结构与设备的全寿命周期可靠性分析提供了一种方法参考。Umbilical is one of the key facilities of the exploitation of subsea oil and gas,and serves as the“nerve lifeline”in subsea production system.The umbilical will go through the stages of design,manufacture,storage,installation,in-service,and repair during its full lifecycle.In fact,the reliability of umbilical in each stage is not a constant,but a function of time.It is necessary to analyze the variation of the umbilical reliability during its full lifecycle.In this paper,a Fault Tree Analysis model of umbilical in a gas field is established during the storage,installation and in-service stage,and it is transformed into Phase Mission System Bayesian Network model.Using the OREDA data,the reliability of umbilical is analyzed,and the reliability curves with time at different stages are obtained,with comparing with the results of Reliability Block Diagram.Moreover,the reliability of the repaired umbilical is analyzed using the condition reliability method,and the importance degrees of the key units of umbilical are analyzed,to propose improving measures for the weak parts.This paper will provide technical support for the safe operation of umbilical,and will also provide a feasible method for the reliability analysis of ocean engineering and structures during their full lifecycle.

关 键 词：脐带缆 全寿命 贝叶斯网络 可靠性分析 深海油气 水下生产系统 

分 类 号：P751[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]