R市盗窃案件时空分析及防控对策研究  

Analysis on Time and Space of Theft Cases in R City and Study on Prevention and Control Countermeasures

作　　者：阮晓 RUAN Xiao(Graduate School of People's Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学研究生院,北京100038

出　　处：《电脑与信息技术》2021年第4期62-66,共5页Computer and Information Technology

摘　　要：以R市2020年盗窃案件数据为样本,经分析发现:疫情期间R市盗窃案件在日、月份、季度分布上存在显著性差异;涉案赃物多元化有收敛趋势,主要集中在电动车及其附属配件;采用暴力手段破坏汽车进而盗取财物现象突出。以全国当日新增确诊病例及当日新增死亡病例、H省当日新增确诊病例及当日新增死亡病例为检验变量,发现与R市盗窃案发数呈负相关,并达显著性水平。在R市盗窃案件空间分析中发现聚集状态明显。并基于对R市盗窃案件的特点、时空分析从时间热点、空间热点、涉案赃物特点角度提出防控建议。Taking the data of theft cases in R city in 2020 as the sample,the analysis found that there are significant differences in the daily,monthly and quarterly distribution of theft cases in R city during the epidemic period.The diversification of stolen goods involved in the case has a convergent trend,mainly concentrated on electric vehicles and their accessories;Violent means to destroy cars and then steal property is a prominent phenomenon.Taking newly confirmed cases and new deaths of the same day in the whole country and newly confirmed cases and new deaths of the same day in H province as test variables,it was found that there was a negative correlation with the number of theft cases in R city,which reached a significant level.In the analysis of space of theft cases in R city,it is found that the aggregation state is obvious.Based on the analysis of the characteristics and spatial and temporal distribution of theft cases in R city,the prevention and control suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of time-space hot and characteristics of stolen goods.

关 键 词：盗窃 犯罪热点 ARCGIS 核密度估计 时空分析 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] TP311[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]