应用社会网络分析技术探索湖南省生猪调运特征  

Discovery of the Characteristics of Live Pig Movement in Hunan Province by Social Network Analysis Technology

作　　者：石芳 孙向东[2] 沈朝建[2] 宇传华 Shi Fang;Sun Xiangdong;Shen Chaojian;Yu Chuanhua(School of Health Sciences,Wuhan University Wuhan,Hubei 430071,China;China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center,Qingdao Shandong 266032,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学健康学院,湖北武汉430071 [2]中国动物卫生与流行病学中心,山东青岛266032

出　　处：《中国动物检疫》2021年第8期22-27,共6页China Animal Health Inspection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1200502)。

摘　　要：为了解湖南省内生猪调运特点,利用社会网络分析技术构建湖南省市级生猪调运网络,计算网络特征指标,分析月份变化。结果显示:2017年湖南省14个市/州间共调运生猪510 973批次,数量17 815 040头;西部经济落后地区的网络度数中心度和中介中心度低于环洞庭湖地区和湘南地区;邵阳市生猪调运批次和数量最大,而长沙市接收其他城市调入的生猪最多;在去掉度数中心度前50%的7个地区后,生猪调运批次下降76.28%,调运数量下降87.42%;月份分析显示,从第一季度到第四季度,湖南省生猪调运批次和数量存在上升趋势。结果表明:社会网络分析技术可构建完整的生猪调运网络,获得生猪调运的关键地区,有助于局域精准施策;湖南省应重点加强邵阳市和长沙市生猪调运的防疫检疫以及第四季度的监督管理工作。In order to identify the characteristics of live pig movement in Hunan Province,a movement network at municipal level was established by social network analysis technology to calculate the network indicators and to analyze changes in each month.The results showed that 510973 batches of live pigs were moved across 14 cities/prefectures in the province in 2017,covering 17815040 pigs;the centralities of degree centrality and betweenness centrality were lower in western economically undeveloped areas than those in the areas around Dongting Lake and southern Hunan;pigs were moved in largest batches and quantity in Shaoyang City,and mostly introduced to Changsha City from other cities;After excluding 7 regions with the top 50%of degree centrality,the batches and quantity of moved pigs reduced by 76.28%and 87.42%,respectively;The batches and quantity of moved pigs tended to increase from the first quarter to the fourth.It was concluded that the social network analysis technology could be used to build a complete pig movement network,and identify key areas where pigs were moved from or into,which contributed to local accurate implementation of policies.Therefore,disease prevention and quarantine for transported pigs in Shaoyang and Changsha cities as well as management and supervision in the fourth quarter should be strengthened in Hunan Province.

关 键 词：社会网络分析 兽医流行病学 牲畜调运 风险分析 湖南 

分 类 号：S851.34[农业科学—预防兽医学]