中国家庭生育二孩的边际机会成本——基于收入分层的视角  

Marginal Opportunity Cost of Having the Second Child in China:Based on Family Economic Status

作　　者：王俊[1] 石人炳[1] WANG Jun;SHI Renbing(School of Sociology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学社会学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《人口与经济》2021年第4期96-107,共12页Population & Economics

摘　　要：已有研究从性别视角考察了生育孩子的机会成本在两性之间的不均衡分布,但对于其在家庭之间、孩次之间的异质性分布缺乏进一步的探讨。使用CFPS 2010—2018年5期追踪数据,分析了家庭生育二孩的边际机会成本及其阶层分化效应。研究发现,相比第一个孩子,家庭生育第二个孩子的边际机会成本更高,尤以中等收入家庭为甚。总体上,生育第二个孩子导致的家庭经济收入的下降幅度约为7.1%,妻子的就业几率下降幅度约为9.3%;对应的统计值在中等收入家庭中分别达到8.6%和20.5%。研究从经济理性的视角,为现代家庭尤其是中等收入家庭低迷的二孩生育意愿提供了可能的理论解释和实证经验。Previous studies have examined the unbalanced distribution of opportunity cost of child rearing from the perspective of gender,but there is no further discussion about the parity and social stratum divergence of the cost among families and children.The paper uses the 5-period CFPS 2010-2018 longitudinal data to investigate the marginal opportunity cost of the second child and its stratification effect.It is found that bearing a second child requires a higher marginal opportunity cost for the families,especially in middle-income groups.In general,having a second child reduces a family’s income by 7.1%and a wife’s chance of being employed by 9.3%;the corresponding statistics reached 8.6%and 20.5%in middle-income families respectively.From the perspective of economic rationality,the study provides a theoretical explanation and empirical experience for the depressed willingness to have a second child in modern families,especially for middle income classes.

关 键 词：二孩边际机会成本 中等收入家庭 经济理性 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]