基于传染病模型的群体活动中恐慌心理蔓延研究  

Research on spread of panic psychology in group activities based on infectious disease model

作　　者：王瑞祥 张英华[1,2] 秦挺鑫 王晶晶[4] 丁时伟[1,2] 高玉坤 WANG Ruixiang;ZHANG Yinghua;QIN Tingxin;WANG Jingjing;DING Shiwei;GAO Yukun(State Key Laboratory of High-Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Research Center of Mine Refuge Technology,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;China National Institute of Standardization,Beijing 100191,China;Beijing Research Center of Urban System Engineering,Beijing 100035,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学金属矿山高效开采与安全教育部重点实验室,北京100083 [2]北京科技大学矿山避险技术研究中心,北京100083 [3]中国标准化研究院,北京100191 [4]北京城市系统工程研究中心,北京100035

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2021年第7期167-171,共5页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0810600)。

摘　　要：为研究人群中恐慌心理蔓延规律,基于传染病传播模型,构建NPCN(Normal-Panic-Cool-Normal)恐慌心理蔓延模型,通过加入干预因子得到优化模型,对NPCN模型及优化模型进行数值模拟,并对模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明:恐慌人群比例随恐慌率α和冷静损失率γ增大而增大,随冷静率β增大而减小;在干预因子ω和ψ作用下,恐慌人群比例P明显下降,说明采取及时干预措施对恐慌心理蔓延抑制效果较好。In order to study the spread laws of panic psychology in the crowd,a Normal-Panic-Cool-Normal(NPCN)model for the spread of panic psychology was constructed based on the spread model of infectious disease.An optimized model was obtained through adding the intervention factors,then the numerical simulation was conducted by using the NPC model and optimized model,and the simulation results were compared and analyzed.The results showed that the proportion of panic crowd increased with the increase of panic rateαand calmness loss rateγ,but decreased with the increase of calmness rateβ.Under the effect of intervention factorsωandψ,the proportion of panic crowd P decreased obviously,which presented that the timely intervention measures had better effect on inhibiting the spread of panic psychology.

关 键 词：恐慌心理 群体活动规律 踩踏 NPCN模型 数值模拟 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]