基于活动的交通出行模型应用和发展趋势  

Application and Evolution of the Activity-based Model

作　　者：刘昊飞 LIU Haofei(Beijing Transport Institute,Beijing 100073,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通发展研究院,北京100073

出　　处：《交通与运输》2021年第S01期62-65,共4页Traffic & Transportation

摘　　要：作为交通需求模型的创新发展方向,基于微观个体的宏中观模型建模在世界范围内的各大都市区均得以广泛应用,总结基于微观个体活动的交通出行模型的模型基本结构、应用和发展趋势,可以帮助政策研究制定者选择合适定量建模工具,从而有针对性地提升大都市区的交通治理水平,改善居民出行体验。研究通过系统梳理相关模型开发技术报告,访谈国内外模型研发专家和相关工作人员,厘清这一类模型的主要架构、应用软件、通过对其国内外的发展脉络与应用效果进行系统综述经验总结,可以更好地将此类模型应用到具体的建设项目效益评价和城市交通政策制定过程中。As a disaggregate dynamic integrated model system,despite higher cost of model development,the activity-based model(ABM)has been the widely applied in large metropolitan areas around the world.A thorough introduction of the application and the trends of evolution of ABM contributes to appropriate application of ABM and other agent-based simulation or quantitative modeling toolsets for researchers of urban transportation policy.By reviewing model development guidance prepared by academic research agency,technical reports of model development,and interviewing with experts and modelers,this research introduces the typical model structure of ABM,platform and software used,examples of model application and major trends of evolution.As such,ABM can be applied as one of the modeling tools to support project evaluation and travel demand management policy for policymakers,modelers,and urban planners.

关 键 词：基于活动的交通出行模型 动态一体化模型系统 非集计交通需求预测模型 项目效益评估 交通需求管理政策 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]