环境规制对产能利用率的影响——基于技术创新中介调节效应的分析  

The Impact of Environmental Regulation on Capacity Utilization: Analysis of Moderating Mediating Effect Based on Technological Innovation

作　　者：刘帅 杨丹辉[2] 金殿臣 LIU Shuai;YANG Dan-hui;JIN Dian-chen

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院 [2]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所新兴产业研究室

出　　处：《改革》2021年第8期77-89,共13页Reform

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目“新兴产业高质量发展研究”;中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科项目(产业经济学)。

摘　　要：从环境规制影响产能利用率的理论脉络出发,探讨实现绿色技术创新与产能利用率提升的双赢路径,进而采用2001—2017年全国省际面板数据,借助机器学习方法筛选控制变量,构建面板固定效应和有调节的中介效应双模型,验证环境规制对产能利用率的作用机制以及技术创新对该机制的中介调节效应。结果表明:环境规制与工业产能利用率之间呈现显著的U型关系。环境规制对工业产能利用率产生的“先抑后扬”影响主要体现在结构效应和技术创新效应两个方面。进一步的实证检验发现,环境规制通过技术创新的完全中介效应能够在一定程度上改善产能利用状况,且这种作用受到产业结构的正向调节。“十四五”时期,应将完善环境规制体系、改进环境治理方式与深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合,坚持创新驱动生产方式绿色转型,以高质量供给推动经济体系优化升级,从而为迈向“碳中和”布好局起好步。Based on the theoretical context of the impact of environmental regulation on capacity utilization,this paper discusses the win-win path of green technology innovation and capacity utilization,and then uses the national provincial panel data from 2001 to 2017,with the help of machine learning method to screen the control variables,constructs the dual model of panel fixed effect and moderated mediating effect,verifies the mechanism of environmental regulation on capacity utilization and the mediating effect of technological innovation on this mechanism.The results show that there is a significant U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and industrial capacity utilization.The impact of environmental regulation on industrial capacity utilization is mainly reflected in two aspects:structure effect and technological innovation effect.Further empirical test shows that environmental regulation can improve capacity utilization to a certain extent through the full mediating effect of technological innovation,and this effect is positively regulated by industrial structure“During the period of the 14th five-year plan,we should organically combine the improvement of environmental regulation system,the improvement of environmental governance mode and the deepening of supply side structural reform,adhere to the green transformation of production mode driven by innovation,and promote the optimization and upgrading of economic system with high-quality supply,so as to make a good step towards the"carbon neutral"layout.

关 键 词：环境规制 技术创新 产能利用率 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]