中国出口RCEP成员国农产品贸易效率及潜力——基于随机前沿引力模型的分析  

The efficiency and potential of China’s agricultural products exports to RCEP member countries--Analysis based on stochastic frontier gravity model

作　　者：李明 喻妍 许月艳 李崇光[1] LI Ming;YU Yan;XU Yueyan

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《世界农业》2021年第8期33-43,68,119,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71673103);国家大宗蔬菜产业技术体系产业经济与发展政策研究(CARS-23-F01)。

摘　　要：本文采用随机前沿引力模型,考察了2002—2018年中国出口《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)成员国农产品贸易效率及影响因素,分析了中国农产品出口的市场空间和贸易潜力。结果表明,中国出口RCEP成员国农产品历年的平均贸易效率为0.48;贸易效率在国家间存在较大的异质性,且存在更大的出口潜力有待挖掘;RCEP成员国的经济和人口规模、中国的人口规模及共同语言与中国农产品出口显著正相关,而地理距离和共同边界与中国农产品出口显著负相关;交通和通信基础设施及区域经济一体化在贸易效率提升方面作用明显,而较低的贸易和投资自由化、不充分的政府支出和廉洁程度却限制了贸易效率的提高。最后,本文为进一步提升中国出口RCEP成员国的农产品贸易效率、挖掘双边农产品贸易潜力提出可行性建议。Using the stochastic frontier gravity model,This paper investigated the efficiency and influencing factors of China’s agricultural exports to RCEP member countries from 2002 to 2018,and analyzed the market space and trade potential of China’s agricultural exports.The results show that the average trade efficiency of China’s exports of agricultural products from RCEP member countries over the years is 0.48.In addition,there is greater heterogeneity in trade efficiency among countries and greater export potential to be tapped.The economic and population size of RCEP member countries,China’s population size and common language are significantly positively correlated with China’s agricultural exports,while geographical distance and common borders are significantly negatively correlated with China’s agricultural exports.Transportation and communication infrastructure and regional economic integration play a significant role in improving trade efficiency,but low trade and investment liberalization,insufficient expenditures and integrity of government limit the improvement of trade efficiency.Finally,we put forward feasible suggestions for further improving the efficiency of China’s agricultural exports to RCEP member countries and tapping the potential of bilateral agricultural trade.

关 键 词：RCEP成员国 农产品出口 贸易效率 贸易潜力 随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]