中亚经济一体化的制度风险评析  

A Review of the Institutional Risks of Economic Integration in Central Asia

作　　者：朱新光 Zhu Xinguang

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学哲学与法政学院,上海200234

出　　处：《新疆社会科学》2021年第2期65-72,151,共9页Social Sciences in Xinjiang

基　　金：国家社科基金后期资助项目“冷战后中亚非传统安全合作研究”(19FGJB014)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：中亚五国独立以来,为争夺区域经济合作的主导优势,域内外国家通过提出本国方案在搭建中亚经济合作框架问题上展开竞争。文章认为,在中亚地区,"低水平重复"的区域合作机制在数量上已超出需求,致使该地区存在结构性制度过剩,主要表现在差异化的引资政策导致投资布局不合理、区域金融合作上短板凸显、尚未形成统一的区域货币体系等方面。其根本原因在于多个国际行为体对区域经济一体化主导权的竞争,由此引发多种机制之间的相互制衡,增加了搭建统一制度框架的成本和难度,迟滞了中亚区域经济合作的进程。随着"一带一路"建设的渐次展开,中国对中亚的影响力日渐彰显,但由于中亚各国政治上存在不确定风险,中国应以上海合作组织机制为核心,充分发挥亚洲基础设施投资银行的主导作用,提出促进中亚区域经济一体化的有关倡议,推动中亚经济稳步发展。Since the independence of the five Central Asian countries,they have been competing for the dominant position in regional economic cooperation by putting forward their own proposals to build a framework for economic cooperation in Central Asia.This paper argues that the number of "low-level duplicative" regional cooperation mechanisms in Central Asia has exceeded the demand,resulting in a structural institutional overload in the region,mainly in the form of differentiated investment policies leading to an unreasonable investment layout,shortcomings in regional financial cooperation,and the absence of a unified regional monetary system.The root cause of this is the competition between several international actors for the dominance of regional economic integration,which has led to mutual checks and balances between various mechanisms,increasing the cost and difficulty of building a unified institutional framework and delaying the process of regional economic cooperation in Central Asia.With the gradual development of the " Belt and Road" project,China’s influence on Central Asia is becoming increasingly evident,but due to the political uncertainty and risks in Central Asian countries,China should take the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as the core mechanism and give full play to the leading role of the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank to put forward relevant initiatives to promote regional economic integration in Central Asia and promote Central Asia’s steady economic development.

关 键 词：中亚 经济一体化 制度过剩 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易]