基础设施投资如何影响产业结构升级:理论框架与经验证据  

How Infrastructure Investment Affects the Upgrade of China’s Industrial Structure: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidence

作　　者：徐晓光[1] 寇佳丽 郑尊信[1] XU Xiao-guang;KOU Jia-li;ZHENG Zun-xin(College of Economics,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen,Guangdong,518060)

机构地区：[1]深圳大学经济学院,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《深圳大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2021年第4期67-78,共12页Journal of Shenzhen University：Humanities & Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自科基金面上项目“中国非线性、非对称性货币政策规则的识别与形成:理论模型和计量框架”(71773079);深圳大学2021年研究生创新发展基金项目“基础设施如何影响产业结构升级?”(315-0000470712)。

摘　　要：基础设施投资是各国刺激经济的重要手段。科学评估基础设施对产业结构升级的影响,实施差异化投资策略,有助于加快中国产业结构转型步伐。聚焦于基础设施投资的结构红利效应,使用1994~2017年中国省级层面面板数据,从时空异质性、作用路径以及边际效应差异等视角实证检验基础设施投资对地区产业结构升级的影响作用,结果发现:基础设施投资显著促进了地区产业结构升级,但这一影响效应在不同发展阶段和地区间存在差异,基础设施投资的结构红利效应在东部地区表现突出,时段上2008年金融危机后表现得更加突出;基础设施投资主要是通过扩大消费需求、改善资源配置状况、增强技术创新能力等机制推动地区产业结构升级;基础设施投资的结构红利效应存在明显的非线性特征,单一的基础设施投资对产业结构升级的促进效应呈现先下降后上升的"U"型关系,而在不同的经济增长和城市化发展阶段,基础设施投资的结构红利效应呈现出先上升后下降再上升的"N"型关系。Infrastructure investment is a significant method in stimulating the economy across countries. Scientific evaluation of the impact of infrastructure on the upgrade of industrial structure, and implementation of differential investment strategies contribute to promoting China’s industrial structure transformation. Focusing on the structural dividend effect of infrastructure investment by China’s provincial panel data from 1994 to 2017, the impact of infrastructure investment on the upgrade of regional industrial structure is empirically tested via the perspectives of temporal and spatial heterogeneity, action paths, and marginal effect differences, etc. The findings are as follow. First,infrastructure investment dramatically promotes the upgrade of regional industrial structure. However, the promotion effect varies by region and stage, and there is a more prominent structural dividend effect of infrastructure investment in the region of eastern China and the time after the 2008 financial crisis. Second, infrastructure investment promotes the upgrade of regional industrial structure through expanding consumption, improving resource allocation, and enhancing technological innovation. Third, the structural dividend effect of infrastructure investment is obviously nonlinear. In detail,the promotion effect of a single infrastructure investment on the upgrade of industrial structure presents a U-type relationship showing a trend of rising after down to the nadir, while in different stages of economic growth and urbanization development, the structural dividend effect of infrastructure investment indicates a fluctuating N-type relationship.

关 键 词：基础设施投资 产业结构升级 结构红利效应 中介效应 时空异质性 新基建 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]