大国隐性军事竞争与中美冲突管控  

The Invisible Military Competition and Conflict Management in Sino-U.S.Relations

作　　者：祁昊天[1] QI Haotian

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院,北京100871

出　　处：《外交评论（外交学院学报）》2021年第4期85-119,I0004,共36页Foreign Affairs Review

摘　　要：无论是历史案例,如近现代欧洲主要大国之间的军事博弈,还是现当代国际安全态势,如美苏冷战以及当前美国自我定位的大国竞争,军事竞争始终是大国博弈的重要维度。军事竞争的内涵、机制及影响是大国关系乃至地区和全球安全体系的重要构成因素。军事竞争与冲突的关系,特别是在何种情况下不同模式和状态的军事竞争更可能影响国家间安全体系的稳定性,是该议题的核心关切之一。本文通过融合技术、军事行动与国家战略层面的视角,基于大国军事能力动态差异、实力均衡变迁与针对性调整,对大国军事竞争的性质与影响进行探讨,突出军事竞争主体之间共同演化过程中所具有的"隐性"竞争特征。其表现包括战略层面的长周期与体系性,以及技战术与行动层面军事演进对战略稳定体系的作用。在此过程中,实力均衡的相对转移与技术条件及相应作战方式的改变,在宏观与微观两个层面共同作用并影响大国军事竞争乃至整体战略博弈的表现,进而对冲突管控提出了不同要求。In historical and contemporary great power competitions,such as those among the major European powers in the 19 th century,the Cold War,and the recent U.S.strategic self-positioning,military competition has always been an important dimension of power competition.The meaning,mechanism and influence of military competition are crucial components of the major power relations,as well as regional and global security.The relationship between military competition and conflict,in particular,under what circumstances military competitions of different modes and states are more likely to affect the stability of the interstate security and propensity of conflict,is one of the central concerns of the theme.This research discusses the nature and impact of military competition between major powers,and addresses factors at technological,operational and strategic levels.Focusing on the dynamic differences in military capabilities,power transition and associated strategic adjustment,this paper highlights the"invisible"aspect of the co-evolutionary process of military competition.The consequences of invisible competition are reflected in the long-term systematic strategic evolvement,as well as the impact of military evolution at technical,tactical and operational levels.In invisible military competitions,the relative transition in power balance,changes in technical conditions and the corresponding military operational patterns,affect military competition and even the overall strategic competition between major powers at both macro and micro levels.The combinations of these factors lead to different circumstances of and requirements for conflict management.

关 键 词：军事竞争 实力转移 博弈 冲突管控 战略稳定 中美关系 

分 类 号：E1[军事—军事理论] D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]