塑造与“反哺”:大国地缘政治竞争回归背景下美国核战略转型论析  

Shaping and Feedback:Changing U.S.Nuclear Strategy and a Return to Great Power Geopolitical Competition

作　　者：程晓勇 Cheng Xiaoyong

机构地区：[1]暨南大学国际关系学院/华侨华人研究院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2021年第3期39-74,167,共37页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“一带一路倡议在东南亚实施的安全环境研究”(项目编号:18BGJ068)的阶段性成果;国家留学基金委公派访问学者项目(项目编号:201806785006)的资助。

摘　　要：基于对国际形势和战略环境的认知变化以及对安全威胁与现实挑战的新判断,美国提出了"大国地缘政治竞争回归"的概念,它既在客观上反映了当前国际关系的基本面貌和趋势,更是美国政府在"后反恐时代"顺应全球战略规划转向需要的概念创设和阐述,为构建新的内外战略提供了政治效用。在大战略转向的背景下,美国对其核战略进行了重大调整,转型的核战略以赢得大国地缘政治竞争为目标,其要点是加快核力量现代化,发展灵活、多样、实战性的核威慑力,强化对于其他大国的核优势。特朗普政府以"大国地缘政治竞争"的视角和思维看待并谋划美国与中俄之间的关系,完成了安全和外交重心由"反恐"向大国地缘政治竞争的彻底转向,并启动核战略转型作为护持美国霸权的重要举措。拜登政府的安全战略与对外政策同样建立在大国地缘政治竞争的基础之上,其核战略或许会向"合作性"方向适度回调,但仍会将核力量作为应对"未来不确定因素"和巩固美国权力地位的重要依仗,这保证了基于"大国地缘政治竞争回归"核战略转型的延续性。大国地缘政治竞争塑造了美国的核战略转型,以大国地缘政治竞争为导向的核战略又反过来激化了大国地缘政治竞争,促使美国更加重视核武器在大国博弈中的作用,形成二者的相互强化。Against the backdrop of major shift in strategic direction,the U.S.has made significant adjustments to its nuclear strategy,shifting towards an objective of winning great power geo-political competition,aiming to speed up its efforts towards nuclear modernization,enhancing the flexibility,diversity and combat utility of its nuclear deterrence,thereby strengthening its nuclear advantage over other great powers.The Trump Administration’s perspective of"great power geopolitical competition"considers America’s relations with both China and Russia,and serves to fully complete a shift from"counter-terror"to great power geopolitical competition as the focal point for both security and diplomacy.The U.S.further initiated a strategic transition in nuclear strategy as a means of safeguarding its hegemony.The Biden Administration’s security strategy and foreign policy are also developed on the basis of great power geo-political competition,and while Biden’s nuclear strategy may adjust slightly in the direction of"cooperation",it will continue to rely on nuclear weapon as a means of responding to"future uncertainties"and as a means of consolidating American power.This guarantees continuity in the shift of nuclear strategy which towards the return to great power competition.Great power geopolitical competition has shaped the transition in America’s nuclear strategy,and in turn this emphasis on nuclear strategy has intensified broader great power geopolitical competition.

关 键 词：大国地缘政治竞争 美国核战略 战略转型 国际核秩序 国际安全 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学]