地方公共债务与资本回报率--来自新口径债务数据和三重机制检验的经验证据  

Local Public Debt and Return on Capital:Evidence from New Debt Data and the Triple Mechanism Test

作　　者：冀云阳 毛捷[2] 文雪婷 JI Yunyang;MAO Jie;WEN Xueting(School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University;School of International Business and Economics,University of International Business and Economics;Taikang Asset Management Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙200433 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029 [3]泰康资产管理有限责任公司,北京100033

出　　处：《金融研究》2021年第6期1-20,共20页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“新时代下地方政府债务风险的新特征与监管研究”(18ZDA097);国家自然科学基金青年项目“经济高质量发展背景下地方政府债务扩张的资源配置效应及其优化路径研究”(72003046)的资助。

摘　　要：资本回报率对于理解我国经济运行具有重要意义本文通过匹配2006-2015年地级市层面的新口径债务数据和资本回报率数据,实证检验了地方公共债务扩张对资本回报率的影响效应及其地区异质性表现.并从宏观、中观和微观三个角度开展作用机制分析研究发现:第一,地方公共债务扩张对我国宏观资本回报率产生了负面影响,此影响在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然存在;第二,地方公共债务的扩张通过降低基础设施投资效率、提高房地产业投资占比和挤出企业投资产生影响;第三,上述负面影响在非城市群、非大中城市和土地融资依赖度更高的城市表现更为突出。以上结论为深化地方政府投融资体制改革提供了政策参考,未来应注重债务资金的绩效管理和使用效率,促进经济高质量发展。For China, preventing systemic economic risks while achieving high-quality economic development has become a general objective. Debt-financed investment by local governments is one popular tool for stabilizing economic growth and supply-side structural reform. Local government debt has been expanding on a massive scale since the 2008 financial crisis. By the end of 2019, local public debt had risen to 21.3 trillion yuan, more than double the amount in 2013. At the same time, macro returns on capital have been falling. According to the calculations of Bai Chong ’en and Zhang Qiong(2014), since 1993, China’s return on capital has been on a downward trend, especially since 2008. Compared with the beginning of reform and opening up, return on capital dropped by 11.3 percentage points in 2013. To explain this, we empirically test the effect of local public debt expansion on return on capital and regional heterogeneity by using matching data on local public debt and return on capital at the prefecture-level city level, and examine the three mechanisms of the effect.In the past decade, when promoting economic development, local governments have increasingly relied on debt-based investment and financing. The resulting huge public debt greatly loosens local governments’ budget constraints, but at the same time it occupies a large amount of credit capital, which will inevitably lead to capital misallocation if investment efficiency is low or other more productive types of investment are crowded out. From the perspective of the local public debt operating process(i.e., financing-investment-repayment), in the financing stage, large-scale borrowing by local governments may crowd out the credit resources of banks, thus raising the cost of credit capital of enterprises within the jurisdiction, leading to a crowding out effect. Second, in the investment stage, local government debt funds are mainly used for infrastructure construction. If infrastructure investment has low efficiency, this also indirectly indicates the low

关 键 词：地方公共债务 资本回报率 投资效率 挤出效应 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]