我国财政政策对经济增长的影响研究——基于向量自回归模型分析  

Research on the stimulating effect of fiscal policy on economic growth

作　　者：孙飞[1] 任奕繁 Sun Fei;Ren Yifan

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学管理学院 [2]新加坡南洋理工大学

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2020年第12期91-94,163,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：财政政策在我国宏观调控中起到了重要的作用。财政政策对经济增长的拉动效应一直是学术界关注的聚焦点。基于此背景,本文首先对亚洲金融危机、全球金融危机、新冠疫情等突发危机造成经济波动下的财政政策调控效应进行理论阐述,然后建立财政政策效应与经济增长的向量自回归模型及相关指标模型,选取2001年至2019年的数据进行实证分析,并对财政收入、税收、工业产出以及消费价格水平进行格兰杰因果检验和脉冲函数响应。研究发现:财政支出和税收对工业产出的波动冲击是有效相关的,同时这两种政策有利于平抑经济波动,拉动经济增长。总体来看,税收政策短期内可以达到稳定波动的作用,但从长期来看,调整财政支出对于经济的波动减缓是有效的。Fiscal policy has played a vital role in China’s macro-control, and its pulling effect on economic growth has always been the focus of academic circles. Based on this background, this article firstly elaborates on the fiscal policy control effect under the economic fluctuations caused by sudden crises such as the Asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 epidemic. Then establish the vector autoregressive model of fiscal policy effect and economic growth and related index model. The article selects data from 2001 to 2019 for empirical analysis and performs the Granger causality test and impulse function response on fiscal revenue, taxation, industrial output, and consumer price levels. The study found that fiscal expenditure and taxation are effectively related to the fluctuation impact of industrial output. At the same time,these two policies are conducive to calming economic fluctuations and stimulating economic growth. In general, taxation policies can achieve stable fluctuations in the short term. But in the long run, adjusting fiscal expenditures is effective in reducing economic fluctuations.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 财政政策 经济增长 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学]