内蒙古自治区水资源尾效分析--基于12个盟市面板数据  

Analysis on Drag Effect of Water Resources in Inner Mongolia Based on the Panel Data of 12 Leagues and Cities

作　　者：齐义军 斯日吉模楞[1] QI Yi-jun;Sirijimoleng(College of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,China;Center of Applied Mathematics,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古师范大学经济管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [2]内蒙古师范大学应用数学中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010022

出　　处：《内蒙古师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第4期353-357,共5页Journal of Inner Mongolia Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：内蒙古自治区统计科学研究资助项目(TJXHKT202003);内蒙古自治区高等学校科学研究资助项目(NJSY21559)。

摘　　要：内蒙古自治区水资源短缺、时空分布不均、供需矛盾突出,水资源短缺已经成为生态文明建设和经济社会可持续发展的瓶颈。依据“增长阻力”概念,扩展Romer(2001)经济增长模型,将水资源纳入经济增长模型中,利用2000-2016年内蒙古自治区12个盟市面板数据,采用固定效用面板模型回归方法,估计参数,定量测算了水资源限制对内蒙古自治区经济的“尾效”。研究发现,水资源约束对内蒙古自治区经济的“尾效”为0.00582。说明内蒙古自治区经济增长率由于水资源限制产生的“阻力”影响,每年都在上一年增长率的基础上下降0.582%。内蒙古自治区社会经济发展需遵循“水资源作为最大的刚性约束,以水而定、量水而行”原则,制定有效措施,实现生态文明建设和可持续发展。The shortage water as well as its uneven distributed in temporal and spatial and imbalance between supply and demand has seriously restricted the construction of ecological civilization and sustainable economic and social development in Inner Mongolia.Based on the concept of“tail drag”,the economic growth model of Romer(2001)was extended by water resources included in it.By using the panel data of 12 cities in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2016,the regression method of fixed utility panel model was adopted to quantitatively measure the“tail drag”of water resources constraint on Inner Mongolia's economy.The results showed that the“tail drag”of water resource constraint on economy in Inner Mongolia was 0.00582,indicative of that economic growth rate of Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.582 percentage points per year due to water resources restrictions,namely,the economic growth rate of Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.582%annually on the basis of the previous year's growth rate due to the“tail drag”effect caused by water resources limitation.It is suggested that the social and economic development of Inner Mongolia should follow the principle of“water dominating the action”,and formulate measures to realize the construction of ecological civilization and sustainable development according water supply.

关 键 词：水资源 资源约束 尾效 经济增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]