考虑失效相关的两类主辅并联系统模糊可靠性分析  

Fuzzy reliability analysis of two kinds of main and auxiliary repairable parallel systems with failure-correlation

作　　者：何有宸 狄鹏[2] 陈童 尹东亮 谢经伟 HE Youchen;DI Peng;CHEN Tong;YIN Dongliang;XIE Jingwei(Department of Air Defense Early Warning Equipment,Air Force Early Warning Academy,Wuhan 430019,China;Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China)

机构地区：[1]空军预警学院防空预警装备系,武汉430019 [2]海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系,武汉430033

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2021年第8期92-102,共11页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology

摘　　要：长期运行的劣化累积和复杂多变的外部环境导致系统性能水平存在不确定性,单纯精确的定量描述可能会对系统性能水平区间估计过窄,已不满足工程计算实际。同时,部件间的失效相关现象是影响系统可靠性的又一重要因素,忽视失效相关将导致对系统可靠性指标评估过高,从而影响维修力量分配及备件储存,不利于系统长期稳定运行。对此,本文以多状态部件构成的主、辅单元并联可修系统为对象,将部件失效转移率、修复转移率及状态性能水平均视为模糊数的同时,将系统部件的失效相关性纳入研究范围,分别对工程中常见的两类主辅并联系统进行可靠性分析。建立了模糊失效相关主辅并联多状态可修系统模型及状态转移微分方程组,得到了系统的模糊状态概率。应用α水平截集及Zadeh扩张原理,确定了模糊状态概率和系统稳态可用度的截集区间,并通过工程实例给出了稳态指标随部件参数模糊程度变动的情况,为研究复杂条件下多状态系统失效相关问题提供了参考,有利于工程设计中的维修保障优化。Due to the long-run accumulation and the complex and changeable external environment,the performance level of a system is uncertain.Accurate quantitative description may cause the interval estimation of the system performance level to be too narrow,which already cannot fulfill the engineering calculation in practice.Meanwhile,failure-correlation is another important factor affecting the reliability of the system.Ignoring failure-correlation can lead to the overestimation of the system reliability,which affects the distribution of maintenance force and the storage of spare components,and is not conducive to the long-term stable operation of the system.Therefore,taking the parallel repairable system of main and auxiliary units composed of multi-state components as research object,the failure transfer rate,repair transfer rate,and state performance level of the components were regarded as fuzzy numbers,and the failure-correlation of the system components was investigated.The reliability analysis of two typical kinds of main and auxiliary parallel systems were carried out.The model for fuzzy multi-state main and auxiliary repairable parallel system with failure-correlation and the fuzzy state transfer differential equations were established,and the fuzzy state probability of the system was obtained.By using theα-level truncation set and the Zadeh-expansion principle,the truncated set interval of the fuzzy state probability and the steady state availability of the system was determined.The steady measures of the system were obtained,and the influence of the fuzzy degree of component parameters on the steady measures was given by numeral application,which provides reference for the study on the failure-correlation of multi-state systems under complex conditions,and is conducive to the optimization of maintenance support in engineering design.

关 键 词：模糊多状态 失效相关 模糊多状态部件 主辅并联可修系统 可靠性估计 

分 类 号：V211[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]