基于可变模糊集理论的区域水资源承载力评价  

Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on variable fuzzy set theory

作　　者：王君诺 孙新如 刁艳芳[2] WANG Junnuo;SUN Xinru;DIAO Yanfang(Shuifa Planning and Design Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250000,China;College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271018,China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Hebei Engineering University,Handan 056038,China;Shandong Lake Basin Management&Informationize Engineering Technology Research Center,Jinan 250000,China)

机构地区：[1]水发规划设计有限公司,山东济南250000 [2]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018 [3]河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸056038 [4]山东省湖泊流域管理信息化工程技术研究中心,山东济南250000

出　　处：《水资源开发与管理》2021年第6期19-26,共8页Water Resources Development and Management

基　　金：山东省重点研发计划项目(2019GSF111043)。

摘　　要：本文在水资源承载力概念的基础上,基于“压力-状态-响应”模型,构建了包含目标层、准则层和指标层的区域水资源承载力评价指标体系,将评价等级划分为很强、强、中等、弱、很弱5个级别,确定了各评价指标的计算方法及其分级阈值。采用熵权法确定各评价指标权重,建立了基于可变模糊集理论的水资源承载力评价模型。以山东省济宁市为研究对象,对其2010—2018年的水资源承载力进行评价,结果表明:济宁市水资源承载力有逐年转优的变化趋势,评价等级由弱变为中等。由水资源承载力的贡献程度分析可知,为了提高其水资源承载力,应继续加大城市污水处理率和回用率,强化生态补水,积极推进海绵城市建设,普及节水措施和提高节水水平等。Based on the concept of water resources carrying capacity and the“pressure-state-response”model,this paper constructs an evaluation index system of regional water resources carrying capacity,which includes target layer,criterion layer and index layer.The evaluation grades are divided into five levels:special strong,strong,medium,weak and special weak,and the calculation method and classification threshold of each evaluation index are determined.The entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index,and the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on variable fuzzy set theory is established.Taking Jining City of Shandong Province as the research object,this paper evaluates its water resources carrying capacity from 2010 to 2018.The results show that the carrying capacity of water resources in Jining has a changing trend of getting better year by year,and the evaluation grade changes from weak to medium.According to the analysis of the contribution degree of water resources carrying capacity,in order to improve its water resources carrying capacity,we should continue to increase the urban sewage treatment rate and reuse rate,strengthen ecological water supply,actively promote the construction of sponge city,popularize water-saving measures and improve water-saving level.

关 键 词：可变模糊 水资源承载力 熵权法 PSR模型 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]