债券市场对外开放对我国货币政策效应的影响研究  

Study on the Impact of Bond Market Opening to the Outside World on China's Monetary Policy Effect

作　　者：王沿胜 史永立[1] 高锦[1] 郝家馨 WANG Yansheng;SHI Yongli;GAO Jin;HAO Jiaxin(Yan’an Municipal Sub-branch PBC,Yan’an Shaanxi 716000;Xi’an Branch PBC,Xi’an Shaanxi 710075)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行延安市中心支行,陕西延安716000 [2]中国人民银行西安分行,陕西西安710075

出　　处：《西部金融》2021年第6期39-45,67,共8页West China Finance

基　　金：中国人民银行西安分行2020年度重点调研课题成果

摘　　要：随着我国债券市场对外开放不断走向深入,资本的跨境流动性日益增强,资本跨境流动难免会对基础货币产生影响,因而分析债券市场对外开放对货币政策效应的影响成为了理论和实践领域的重要议题。本文在IS-LM-BP模型基础上,构建了债券市场开放影响货币政策的理论框架,并得出债券市场开放度会影响货币政策的基本结论。随后,又通过修正后的Karras模型,对我国2007-2019年间的季度数据进行了实证检验,得出债券市场对外开放会削弱货币政策产出效应,增强货币政策价格效应的结论。With the deepening of China's bond market opening to the outside world,the cross-border liquidity of capi‐tal is increasing.It will inevitably have an impact on the base currency.Therefore,the analysis of the impact of bond mar‐ket opening to the outside world on the effect of monetary policy has become an important topic in both theoretical and practical fields.On the basis of IS-LM-BP model,this paper constructs the theoretical framework of bond market openness affecting monetary policy,and draws the basic conclusion that bond market openness affects monetary policy.Then,through the revised Karras model and based on the quarterly data of China from 2007 to 2019,the empirical test shows that the opening of the bond market will weaken the output effect of monetary policy and enhance the price effect of monetary policy.Therefore,more attention should be paid to the coordination of monetary policy with other macro policy tools in China and with other countries'monetary policies during the implementation of monetary policy.

关 键 词：债券市场 货币政策 有效性 

分 类 号：F830.31[经济管理—金融学]