产业升级对全要素生产率和劳均资本积累的影响:“红利”还是“减速”  

The Empirical Study on the Effects of Industrial Upgrading on TFP Growth and Capital Accumulation:“Structural Bonus”or“Structural Deceleration”

作　　者：吉亚辉[1] 羊洋 JI Ya-hui;YANG Yang

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学经济学院 [2]南京农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《产经评论》2021年第3期146-160,共15页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“自然资源禀赋、地方政府行为与区际产业转移”(项目编号:71663046,项目负责人:聂正彦)。

摘　　要：“结构红利”假说和“结构性减速”理论是分析产业升级对经济增长影响的两个维度。比较二者内在机制,将“结构红利”假说归纳为质量型产业升级,将“结构性减速”理论归纳为数量型产业升级,以此解决产业升级中两种理论的矛盾问题。同时将经济增长分解为来自于全要素生产率的增长和劳均资本积累的增长两部分,基于2003-2017年中国省级面板数据,采用一阶差分GMM分析不同维度产业升级对经济增长的异质性影响。结果显示:(1)质量型产业升级对经济增长表现出“结构红利”,数量型产业升级对经济增长表现出“结构性减速”;(2)质量型产业升级对全要素生产率增长的作用比数量型产业升级更加直接、迅速;(3)质量型产业升级在当期对劳均资本积累有正向作用,但滞后期的影响为负,数量型产业升级对劳均资本积累的影响并不显著,但有负向倾向。辨析“结构红利”假说和“结构性减速”理论的内在联系与区别,对于实现经济高质量发展和产业结构转型升级有重要意义。The hypothesis of“structural bonus”and the theory of“structural deceleration”are two dimensions to analyze the impact of industrial upgrading on economic growth.This paper compares the internal mechanism of the“structural bonus”hypothesis and the“structural deceleration”theory,and summarizes the“structural bonus”hypothesis as“quality-based industrial upgrading”and the“structural deceleration”theory as“quantity-based industrial upgrading”.In this way,the contradiction between the two theories in industrial upgrading is solved.This paper divides the economic growth into sources of TFP growth and labor based capital accumulation growth.Based on 2003-2017 China provincial panel data,the first-order difference GMM is used to analyze the heterogeneity effects of different dimensions of industrial upgrading on economic growth.The results show that:(1)Quality-based industrial upgrading shows a“structural bonus”to economic growth,and quantity-based industrial upgrading shows a“structural deceleration”to economic growth;(2)Quality-based industrial upgrading has a more direct and quicker impact on TFP growth than the quantity dimension.The quality dimension of industrial upgrading in the current period shows significant promoting effect on TFP growth,while the quantity dimension shows negative in current period and positive on lag period;(3)Industrial upgrading of different dimensions also has different effects on the accumulation of capital per worker.Industrial upgrading of quality has a positive effect on the accumulation of capital per worker in the current period,but has a negative effect on the lag period.Industrial upgrading of quantity has no significant effect on the accumulation of capital per worker,but has a negative trend.This paper discriminates the internal connection and difference between the hypothesis of“structural bonus”and the theory of“structural deceleration”,which is of great significance to the realization of high-quality economic development and the t

关 键 词：质量型产业升级 数量型产业升级 经济增长 结构红利 结构性减速 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]