经济新常态、污染防治与政府规制:环境突发事件演化博弈模型  

Economic new normal,pollution prevention and government regulation:Evolutionary game model of environmental emergencies

作　　者：宋民雪 刘德海[1] 尹伟巍 SONG Minxue;LIU Dehai;YIN Weiwei(School of Management Science and Engineering,Dongbei University of Finance&Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Department of Public Security,Liaoning Police University,Dalian 116036,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院,大连116025 [2]辽宁警察学院治安系,大连116036

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2021年第6期1454-1464,共11页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“公共安全风险防控与应急技术装备”重点专项课题(2018YFC0807500);国家自然科学基金(71874024,71571033,71571035)。

摘　　要：推进污染防治取得更大成效是我国全面建成小康社会三大攻坚战之一,经济新常态下地方政府面临着环境保护与稳增长保就业的权衡.考虑周边群众抗议环境污染事件的社会稳定压力,供给侧改革下传统重化工企业环保和转型发展压力,构建了周边群众与企业的自发演化博弈模型,然后讨论政府规制下周边群众与企业的受控演化博弈过程.通过演化均衡分析和案例研究,解释了企业排污和周边群众抗议行为的周期性波动;为了达到{接受,承担社会责任}的演化均衡,政府需要执行适宜的环境规制强度区间;企业生产营业额越大,政府执行环境规制政策的可操作空间越大.本文研究为政府实现高质量发展与保就业双赢提供有益参考借鉴.Promoting greater progress in pollution prevention and control is one of the three major battles to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects.Under the economic new normal,local governments are faced with the balance between environmental protection and stable growth and employment.Considering social stable pressure from mass protests around the environmental pollution event,the traditional enterprises face the pressure of environmental protection and transformation and development in the background of the supply-side reform,this paper constructs a spontaneous evolutionary game model between the surrounding people and enterprises,and then discusses the controlled evolutionary process under the regulation of the government.Through evolutionary equilibrium analysis and case study,the periodic fluctuation of pollution discharge and surrounding public protest behavior is explained.In order to achieve the only equilibrium of {accept,undertake social responsibility},the government needs to implement the appropriate environmental regulation intensity range.The larger the enterprise ’s production turnover,the more room for the government to implement environmental regulation policies.This study provides beneficial reference for the government to achieve high-quality development and employment protection win-win situation.

关 键 词：政府规制 群体性突发事件 演化博弈 环境污染 经济新常态 

分 类 号：C930[经济管理—管理学]