基于Monte-Carlo的无人机系统安全目标水平评估  

Evaluation of Safety Target Level of UAV System Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

作　　者：张宏宏 甘旭升[1,2] 吴亚荣 毕可心[1,2] 吕智虎 ZHANG Honghong;GAN Xusheng;WU Yarong;BI Kexin;LYU Zhihu(Air Traffic Control and Navigation College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi'an 710000,China;National Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Collision Prevention,Xi'an 710000,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学空管领航学院,西安710000 [2]国家空管防相撞技术重点实验室,西安710000

出　　处：《电光与控制》2021年第8期26-30,共5页Electronics Optics & Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61601497)。

摘　　要：针对无人机系统进入融合空域执行不同任务时的安全问题,提出了一种基于Monte-Carlo的风险评估方法。首先对融合空域影响无人机系统发生地面撞击事件的因素进行分析,再用参数分布描述各影响因素的不确定性,最后选取Firebird与Typhoon H两款典型无人机,分别在低风险区域、一般风险区域和高风险区域内利用Monte-Carlo仿真算法进行安全评估,并对各影响因素进行敏感性分析。仿真表明:不同型号的无人机系统在不同运行环境下安全目标水平的差异较大,无人机坠落下滑角度是影响系统允许失效率的关键因素,为无人机系统进入融合空域内的运行风险评价以及提升无人机安全水平提供了一种可行思路。A risk assessment method based on Monte-Carlo is proposed to solve the safety problem of UAV system when entering the integrated airspace to perform different tasks.Firstlythe factors affecting the ground impact events of the UAV system in the fused airspace are analyzed.Thenthe parameter distribution is used to describe the uncertainty of each influencing factor.Finallytwo typical UAVsnamelyFirebird and Typhoon Hare selected to conduct safety assessment using Monte-Carlo simulation algorithm in the low-risk areathe general risk area and the high-risk areaand the sensitivity analysis of each influencing factor is carried out.Simulation shows that different types of UAV system under different operation environment have big differences in safety target leveland UAV falling down angle is the key factor influencing the allowed failure rate.The method provides a feasible way of thinking for operational risk evaluation when UAV system entering the integrated airspaceand can enhance UAV safety level.

关 键 词：无人机系统 对地撞击模型 安全目标水平 Monte-Carlo仿真 

分 类 号：V279[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]