基于中国洪水预报系统的渭河拓石站洪水预报  

Flood forecast at Tuoshi Station on the Weihe River based on China Flood Forecast System

作　　者：席小康 宋淑红 李凯娟 Xi Xiaokang;Song Shuhong;Li Kaijuan(Shaanxi Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Center,Xi'an 710068,shaanxi)

机构地区：[1]陕西省水文水资源勘测中心,陕西西安710068

出　　处：《陕西水利》2021年第7期51-53,56,共4页Shaanxi Water Resources

摘　　要：拓石站是渭河干流重要控制站,建立切实可行的洪水预报方案对防汛调度、保障下游人民生命财产安全具有重要意义。以渭河拓石站控制流域为研究区,基于中国洪水预报系统,应用马斯京根分段连续演算(MSK)与三水源新安江模型建立拓石站预报方案。结果表明:马斯京根分段连续演算法(MSK)与三水源新安江模型的综合预报模型,能够较好的模拟拓石站洪水过程。方案评定与检验的确定性系数分别为0.808、0.911,洪峰流量与峰现时间合格率达72.7%、100%,方案综合评定等级为乙等,可以用于发布正式预报。Tuoshi Station is an important control station for the main stream of the Weihe River.The establishment of a practical flood forecasting plan is of great significance to flood control and to ensure the safety of people s lives and property downstream.This paper takes the Weihe River Tuoshi station control basin as the research area,based on the Chinese flood forecasting system,applies the Muskingen segmented continuous calculus(MSK)and the three-water source Xin anjiang model to establish the Tuoshi station forecast scheme.The results show that the comprehensive forecasting model of Muskingum s segmented continuous algorithm(MSK)and the three-water source Xinanjiang model can better simulate the flood process at Tuoshi Station.The certainty coefficients of program evaluation and inspection are 0.808 and 0.911 respectively.The qualified rate of flood peak discharge and peak present time is 72.7%and 100%.The comprehensive evaluation level of the program is Grade B,which can be used to issue official forecasts.

关 键 词：拓石站 洪水预报 马斯京根 三水源新安江模型 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]