基于广义可加模型分析温湿度因子对斑翅果蝇田间种群动态的影响  

Analysis of the effects of temperature and humidity factors on the population dynamics of Drosophila suzukii(Matsumura)(Diptera:Drsophilidae)based on generalized additive model

作　　者：陈晓[1,2] 赵远鹏 李欣 肖春 李正跃[1,2] 张立敏 CHEN Xiao;ZHAO Yuan-Peng;LI Xin;XIAO Chun;LI Zheng-Yue;ZHANG Li-Min(Plant Protection College,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,China;State Key Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Bio-Resources in Yunnan,Kunming 650201,China;Kunming Yinmore Flower Industry Co.,Kunming 650000,China;Big data(Information Engineering)College,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,China)

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学植物保护学院,昆明650201 [2]省部共建云南生物资源保护与利用国家重点实验室,昆明650201 [3]昆明英茂花卉产业有限公司,昆明650000 [4]云南农业大学大数据(信息工程)学院,昆明650201

出　　处：《环境昆虫学报》2021年第4期858-866,共9页Journal of Environmental Entomology

基　　金：云南农业大学博士科研启动项目(A2032002502)。

摘　　要：探究温湿度因子对田间斑翅果蝇Drosophila suzukii Matsumura种群发生动态的影响,为进一步开展环境胁迫下斑翅果蝇适应性机制研究提供前期基础和参考。本文监测统计了2016-2017年田间斑翅果蝇成虫种群动态数据,并利用广义可加模型(Generalized Additive Models,GAM)分析温湿度因子对成虫种群发生动态的影响。结果表明,通过模型检验和广义交叉验证值(Generalized Cross-Validation,GCV)对比,得出温湿度因子显著影响了2016-2017年斑翅果蝇田间成虫种群发生动态(P<0.05),斑翅果蝇雌成虫、雄成虫、总种群数量的GAM模型参数α分别为2.21346、2.55606和3.08316;雌成虫、雄成虫、总种群数量与温湿度因子关联的GCV值分别为0.57299、0.74501、0.64611,因此雌成虫种群数量与温湿度因子拟合的模型最优;结合温湿度预测曲线分析,斑翅果蝇成虫种群发生动态与温湿度因子之间呈非线性相关,其中温度在23℃以下呈局部负相关,在23℃以上呈局部正相关;与湿度呈正相关,但影响程度较低,因此温度是影响斑翅果蝇成虫种群数量动态的关键生态因子。本文通过探究环境因子对田间斑翅果蝇种群消长规律的影响,为斑翅果蝇的种群发生机制提供了生态学理论基础。To investigate the correlation between temperature-humidity factor and the population dynamics of Drosophila suzukii in the field,thus to provide a preliminary basis and reference for further research on the adaptive mechanisms under environmental stresses.In this study,the monitored field population dynamics data of D.suzukii from 2016 to 2017 were selected,and the correlation between temperature-humidity factor and the population sizes was analyzed by the generalized additive model(GAM).The model test and generalized cross-validation(GCV)showed that temperature-humidity factor significantly affected the field population dynamics of D.suzukii from 2016 to 2017(P<0.05),with the GAM model parametersαof 2.21346,2.55606 and 3.08316 for the female,male,and total population sizes respectively.Because of GCV scores of female,male,and total population sizes were 0.57299,0.74501 and 0.64611 respectively,D.suzukii female adults populations were best fitted with temperature-humidity factor.Combined with temperature-humidity prediction curve analysis,there was a non-linear correlation between temperature-humidity factor and population sizes,of which there being a local negative correlation below 23℃and a local positive correlation above 23℃with temperature factor,and there was a positive correlated with humidity factor,but this impact was lower than that of temperature,which was the key ecological factor affecting the population dynamics of D.suzukii adults.This paper provides a theoretical ecological basis for the occurrence mechanism of D.suzukii through a preliminary investigation with the effects of environmental factors on the population dynamics.

关 键 词：斑翅果蝇 环境因子 广义可加模型 种群动态 

分 类 号：Q968.1[生物学—昆虫学] S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]