“十四五”期间我国水稻增产潜力与实现路径  

China’s Rice Yield Increase Potential and Realization Path during the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period

作　　者：李建平[1] 李俊杰[1] 李文娟[1] 周振亚[1] 王秀芬[1] LI Jianping;LI Junjie;LI Wenjuan;ZHOU Zhenya;WANG Xiufen

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2021年第7期25-37,共13页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系“水稻产业经济岗位科学家项目”(编号:CARS-01-48);农业农村部课题“稻谷市场分析预警”(编号:11200009)。

摘　　要：水稻是我国主要的口粮作物,随着稻谷总需求量增长,保持其稳产增产能力对确保我国口粮绝对安全意义重大。"十三五"期间我国水稻播种面积明显先下滑后回升、单产增速减缓,产量呈稳中略降趋势,增产形势严峻。稻田基础地力、灌排条件是水稻高产的重要基石,高产育种和栽培技术配套是实现水稻单产飞跃的主要推力,经济效益是种植结构调整的核心动力,政策导向是水稻产业发展的重要保障。根据"十四五"期间水稻生产面临的形势,采用CAMES模型预测,2025年我国稻谷产量为21797万吨,与2020年相比增加611万吨。保障增产必须采取强有力的措施,具体实现路径为划定水稻面积红线不低于3000万公顷,力争全国2/3的稻谷产自高标准农田,突破水稻生产种子和机械两大技术瓶颈,通过政策调整稳定水稻种植主体受益预期。Rice is the most important staple crop in China.As the demand for rice grows,increasing the capacity of rice production is of great significance to ensure food security.During the"13 th Five-Year Plan"period,rice planted area in China experienced significant decline and rebound.Yield growth was slowing down,and output declined slightly.Continuous growth of production was facing challenge.For increasing the capacity,the cornerstones of yield growth are to improve soil fertility,irrigation and drainage system of the paddy field.The driving forces of yield growth are high-yield breeding and cultivation technology.The core motivation of planting structure adjustment is economic benefit.The important guarantee of rice production development is policies.Based on the situation facing rice production during the"14 th Five-Year Plan"period,CAMES model used in this paper predicts that rice output will reach 217.97 million tons in 2025,an increase of 6.11 million tons compared with 2020.Strong measures must be taken to ensure the production increase.The specific path is to guarantee rice area not less than 30 million hectares;produce 2/3 of China’s rice from high-standard farmland.We should break through the two major technical bottlenecks of rice breeding and machinery and stabilize the expected benefit of rice planters through policy adjustments.

关 键 词：水稻 增产潜力 路径 粮食安全 “十四五”时期 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]