农业劳动力转移、生产率提升与宏观经济增长——基于全球55个经济体的国际比较  

Agricultural Labor Transfer, Productivity Improvement and Macroeconomic Growth: Based on an International Comparison of 55 Economies

作　　者：李辉尚[1] 胡晨沛 季勇[3] 李美琪 LI Huishang;HU Chenpei;JI Yong;LI Meiqi

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 [2]国家统计局国际统计信息中心,北京100826 [3]中国农业科学院人事局,北京100081

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2021年第7期117-129,共13页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:72073131);全国统计科学研究项目(编号:2020LY022);浙江省杰出青年科学基金(编号:LR20G030001);中国农业科学院创新工程(编号:CAAS-AII-2016);中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项(编号:2020JKY025,JBYW-AII-2021-16)。

摘　　要：本文基于1978—2017年55个经济体两部门劳动生产率数据,利用指数分解方法,测度中国改革开放以来农业劳动力转移、生产率提高对经济增长的拉动情况并进行国际比较。研究表明,改革开放40年,劳动力投入效应、转移效应和劳动生产率效应均是中国经济增长的重要动力,但近年来劳动力投入效应和转移效应明显减弱,农业和非农业劳动生产率效应仍在不断增强;国际经验表明,发展中经济体实现经济赶超将逐渐由转移效应和生产率效应的"双轮驱动"转化为生产率效应的"单轮驱动";国际比较发现,中国劳动力转移效应和劳动生产率效应均在样本经济体中位列第一,但现阶段劳动力由农业向非农业的转移效应日益减弱,农业和非农业劳动生产率效应对未来中国经济增长贡献仍具有较大潜力。应综合施策,确保农业劳动力转移效应发挥的同时,着力提升农业劳动生产率,为宏观经济增长提供重要动力。Based on two-sector industry labor productivity data of 55 economies from 1978 to 2017,the index decomposition method was used to measure the pull of agricultural labor force transfer and productivity increase on economic growth since China’s reform and opening up and to make an international comparison.The research showed that labor input effect,transfer effect and labor productivity effect were the important driving forces of China’s economic growth in the past 40 years,but the effects of labor input and transfer have been obviously weakened in recent years,and the effects of agricultural and non-agricultural labor productivity have been still increasing.International experience showed that the realization of economic catch-up in developing economies would gradually transfer effect to productivity effect,and China’s labor transfer effect and labor productivity effect were ranked first in the sample economy.However,the transfer effects of labor force from agriculture to non-agricultural is weakening gradually,and the contribution of agricultural and non-agricultural labor productivity are still great potential to China’s economic growth in future.At the same time,some countermeasures should be forwarded to improve agricultural labor productivity and provide important impetus for macroeconomic growth.

关 键 词：经济增长 农业劳动力转移 农业劳动生产率 国际比较 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F313[经济管理—世界经济]