京津冀城镇体系的位序—规模与异速生长标度分析  

An Scaling Analysis of Allometry and Size Distributions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban System

作　　者：李雅静 陈彦光[1] LI Yajing;CHEN Yanguang

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院城市与经济地理系,北京100871

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2021年第6期84-92,共9页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家重大计划基金课题“特大城市群地区城镇化与生态环境交互胁迫的病理分析与风险预估”(41590843);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41671167)。

摘　　要：城镇体系的空间结构和等级结构都被证明具有标度性质,但不同标度过程及其与地理空间的关系尚不清楚。以京津冀为研究区,以人口规模和经济产出指标为主要测度,借助位序—规模律和异速生长律研究城镇体系等级结构的标度特征,并揭示等级标度过程与空间格局的关系。采用基于最小二乘法的双对数线性回归估计模型参数。计算结果表明:(1)在一定尺度范围内,京津冀城镇体系服从位序—规模标度律和异速生长标度律。(2)借助位序—规模标度指数的比值可以估计异速生长标度指数。(3)相对于人口规模,经济产出指标异速生长的标度指数多大于1,但经济投入指标的标度指数不稳定。(4)落入标度区的城市集中于京津冀的东南一带,形成标度区域。由此可得如下结论:(1)京津冀城镇经济系统的产出具有报酬递增的特征;(2)京津冀位序—规模分布与横向异速标度具有对应性;(3)京津冀东南区域与标度区一致,京津冀一体化的基础更好。The spatial structure and hierarchical structure of urban system have been proved to bear scaling property,but the relationships between different scaling processes and geographical space is not clear.Taking Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei as the study area,and population size and economic output as measures,we research the scaling characteristics of the hierarchical structure of urban system with the help of rank-size rule and allometric growth law.The aim of this paper is to reveal the relationships between the hierarchical scaling process and spatial patterns in the study area.The model parameters of Zipf′s law and allometric growth are estimated by the double logarithmic linear regression analyses based on the least square method.The results show that:(1)within certain range of scales,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban system follows the rank-size scaling law and allometric growth scaling law.(2)The allometric scaling exponents can be estimated by the Zipf exponents.(3)Compared with population size,the scaling exponent values of allometric growth of economic output are mostly greater than 1,but the scaling exponent values for economic inputs are unstable.(4)The cities falling into the scaling range are concentrated in the southeast of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei,forming the scaling region geographically.The main conclusions can be reached as follows:first,the output of the urban economic system of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei has the characteristics of increasing returns;second,the rank-size distribution scaling of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei is corresponding to its cross-sectional allometric scaling;third,the southeast region of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei can be treated as the scaling region,in which the foundation of the integration of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei is better.This study has enlightening significance for further understanding the structure and function of the urban system of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei.

关 键 词：异速标度律 位序—规模律 分形 集聚效应 报酬递增 规模经济 京津冀城镇体系 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]