中国渔业生产系统隐含碳排放结构特征及驱动因素分解  

Structural characteristics and driving factors of embodied carbon emissions from fishery production system in China

作　　者：李晨[1,2] 李昊玉 孔海峥 冯伟 LI Chen;LI Haoyu;KONG Haizheng;FENG Wei(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Marine Development Studies Institute,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Business School,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,青岛266100 [3]青岛理工大学商学院,青岛266520

出　　处：《资源科学》2021年第6期1166-1177,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学规划基金项目(11BJY064);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2016GQ05)。

摘　　要：面对新的发展形势,传统的渔业生产方式已不适应当前社会转型要求,面临着发展方式粗放、效益低迷及影响生态环境等诸多挑战。渔业经济的低碳化发展是中国渔业可持续发展必然选择,是保障国家食物安全、促进农(渔)民增收和经济社会发展的现实需要,对于从根本上推进中国渔业供给侧结构性改革意义重大。基于投入产出模型和扩展Kaya恒等式,对2002—2017年中国渔业生产系统隐含碳排放变动趋势及结构特征进行研究,并对隐含碳排放的驱动因素进行分解。结果表明:①中国渔业生产系统隐含碳排放整体呈现上升—下降—再上升—再下降的变化趋势,渔业第一产业始终处于渔业隐含碳排放首位,但渔业第二与第三产业的隐含碳排放占比在逐渐上升。②渔业养殖与捕捞、水产加工和水产流通是渔业隐含碳排放的主要产业;渔业三大产业及所包含的12个细分产业的单位产值隐含碳排放水平都呈现下降趋势。③渔业经济增长、一般渔业技术进步对渔业隐含碳排放具有正向的推动作用,渔业经济增长是拉动中国渔业隐含碳排放增长的主要因素;渔业人口和低碳渔业技术进步效应对渔业隐含碳排放具有一定程度的抑制作用,低碳渔业技术进步效应是抑制中国渔业隐含碳排放的最大因素。因此,调整渔业产业结构,转变渔业增长方式,提升渔业低碳技术的应用水平是有效抑制中国渔业隐含碳排放、实现渔业低碳发展的关键。In the face of the new development situation, the traditional mode of fishery production no longer can meet the requirements of the current social transformation. The low-carbon development of the fishery industry is an inevitable choice for its sustainable development in China, a practical need to ensure the national food security and promote the income increase of farmers(fishermen) and economic and social development, and is of great significance for fundamentally promoting the supply side structural reform of China’s marine fisheries. Based on the input-output model and the extended Kaya identity, this study examined the changing trend and structural characteristics of embodied carbon emissions in China’s fishery production system, and decomposed the driving factors of the embodied carbon emissions. The results show that:(1)Embodied carbon emission of fishery production system in China as a whole showed a trend of rising, slightly decreasing, rising again, and falling, the primary fishery sector always had the highest embodied carbon emissions, but the embodied carbon emissions of the secondary and tertiary fishery sectors increased gradually.(2) Fishery capture and aquaculture, processing, and circulation are the main sectors of the embodied carbon emissions in the fishery industry. The embodied carbon emission level per unit output value of the three fishery sectors and the 12 subsectors all showed a downward trend, among which the embodied carbon emission level per unit output value of fishery drug, aquatic transportation, and fishery construction sub-sectors was the highest, which had a great impact on the embodied carbon emissions of the fishery industry.(3)The fishery economic growth and general fishery technological progress have positive impact on the embodied carbon emissions of the industry, and fishery economic growth is the main factor that drives the growth of the embodied carbon emissions. Fishery population, fishery economic structure, and low-carbon fishery technology have a certain degree

关 键 词：渔业生产系统 隐含碳排放 排放结构特征 驱动因素分解 投入产出模型 Kaya恒等式 中国 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F326.4[经济管理—产业经济]