我国货物运输与经济发展适应性评估  

Evaluation of the Adaptability of Freight Transportation and Economic Development in China

作　　者：梁琪琛 黄蓉 左大杰[1,3,4] LIANG Qichen;HUANG Rong;ZUO Dajie(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;Shenzhen SF Taisen Holdings(Groups)Inc.,Shenzhen 518000,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都611756 [2]深圳顺丰泰森控股集团有限公司,深圳518000 [3]西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,成都611756 [4]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,成都611756

出　　处：《综合运输》2021年第7期3-10,17,共9页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(15BGL003)。

摘　　要：为了对我国货物运输与经济发展的适应性进行评估,本文将解耦理论融入到运输化理论和铁路货运需求增长四阶段模型中,根据1986-2018年我国的货运(以货物周转量表示)和经济(以GDP表示)统计数据,计算得到各年的货运-经济耦合系数,并在此基础上采用Fisher最优分割算法清晰地量化了我国货运所处的发展阶段、发展特点和未来趋势。研究结果表明,当前我国货运与经济正处于解耦阶段,货运能力已经适应于经济发展的需求,未来的货物周转量将取决于货物运输需求。因此,我国需要在交通强国建设的背景下,加强顶层设计,合理推进交通基础设施建设和运输结构调整,积极发展多式联运,使货物运输与经济发展相适应,实现高质量发展。In order to evaluate the adaptability of freight transportation and economic development,this study incorporates the decoupling theory into the transportation theory and the four-stage model of rail freight demand growth.According to China’s freight(characterized by freight turnover)and economic(characterized by GDP)statistics from 1986 to 2018,the freight-economy coupling coefficient for each year is calculated.On the basis of calculation,the development stage,development characteristics and future trends of China’s freight transport are clearly quantified by the Fisher optimal segmentation algorithm.The results indicate that:at present,China’s freight transport and economy are in a decoupling stage of development,and freight capacity has adapted to the needs for economic development.In the future,the freight turnover will depend on the demand for freight transportation.Therefore,under the background of building a strong transportation,China should strengthen the top-level design of transportation.Specifically,it is necessary to rationally promote the construction of transportation infrastructure,adjust the transportation structure,and develop multimodal transport actively,so that freight transportation can adapt to economic development and achieve high-quality development.

关 键 词：新发展格局 交通运输 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F512[经济管理—产业经济]