人口老龄化、人力资本与服务出口复杂度  

Aging of Population, Human Capital and Service Export Sophistication

作　　者：冯德连[1] 李子怡 FENG De-lian;LI Zi-yi(School of International Economics and Trade,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,233030)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,233030

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2021年第7期28-38,共11页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新国际分工视角下服务业与服务贸易协调机制研究”(批准号:13CJY093);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目“人口老龄化、人力资本与服务出口复杂度研究”(批准号:ACYC2019048)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：分析人口老龄化、人力资本及两者的交互作用对服务出口复杂度的作用机理,并提出理论假说。运用2008-2017年包括中国在内的50个国家和地区的跨国面板数据,在测算出各国(地区)服务出口复杂度的基础上,构建静态面板和动态面板模型,实证检验人口老龄化、人力资本及其二者交互作用对服务出口复杂度的影响,验证理论假说。研究结果表明,人口老龄化、人力资本分别能够显著促进服务出口复杂度的提升,但两者交互项对服务出口复杂度具有显著的负向影响。研究结果为处于人口老龄化背景下的世界各国(地区)尤其是老龄化国家(地区)制定人口老龄化和人力资本的财政分配、服务出口复杂度提升等政策提供思路。This paper analyzes the mechanism of population aging,human capital and their interaction on the complexity of service export,and puts forward the theoretical hypothesis.Based on the cross-border panel data of 50 countries(regions)including China from 2008 to 2017,this paper constructs static and dynamic panel models to empirically test the influence of population aging,human capital and their interaction on the complexity of service export,and verifies the theoretical hypothesis.The results show that population aging and human capital can significantly promote the complexity of service export,but the interaction between them has a significant negative impact on the complexity of service export.The results provide ideas for countries around the world,especially the aging countries,in the context of population aging,to formulate policies on population aging,financial allocation of human capital,and increase the complexity of service export.

关 键 词：服务出口复杂度 人口老龄化 老年抚养比 人力资本 跨国面板 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]