“一带一路”倡议的入境旅游政策效应--福建省经验数据的实证  

The Policy Effect of Inbound Tourism of“The Belt and Road”Initiative--Case Study of Empirical Data of Fujian Province

作　　者：侯志强[1] 曹咪 吴贵华[1] HOU Zhi-qiang;CAO Mi;WU Gui-hua

机构地区：[1]华侨大学旅游学院,福建泉州362011

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第4期62-76,共15页Journal of Huaqiao University(Philosophy & Social Sciences)

基　　金：福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JZ160085);福州市社会科学规划项目(2016FZ09);华侨大学研究生科研创新能力培育计划项目(18013121001)。

摘　　要：以福建省为处理组,采用合成控制法,利用2004—2016年内11个未实施“一带一路”倡议省市区构建“合成福建”,并由此评估“一带一路”倡议对福建省入境旅游的政策效应。研究表明:(1)“一带一路”倡议对福建省入境旅游具有促进作用,相较于“合成福建”,年平均增幅度为9.53%。(2)通过作用机制探索,“一带一路”倡议主要通过深化福建省对外开放发挥政策效应。(3)基于福建省、“一带”“一路”“一带一路”沿线省市区“一带一路”倡议政策效应、作用机制的异质性分析,“一带一路”沿线省市区有必要持续推进旅游对外开放,优质对接国际旅游需求;促进产业平衡稳定发展,逐步优化升级产业结构;优化旅游生产要素积累,全面提升生产要素优势;合理调整政府支出,实行积极而有限的政府职能等政策。Taking Fujian province as an example and using the synthetic control method,this paper wants to construct the“synthetic Fujian”by using the 11 provinces and municipalities in China without implementation of the“Belt and Road”initiative from 2004 to 2016,and to evaluate the policy effect of the“Belt and Road”initiative on the inbound tourism of Fujian Province.The research shows that:(1)“The Belt and Road”initiative has played a role in promoting Fujian’s inbound tourism with an average annual increase of 9.53%compared with that of synthetic Fujian;(2)Through an analysis of influencing mechanism,the“Belt and Road”initiative exerts its policy effects in Fujian Province mainly by deepening the opening up;(3)Based on the analysis of the heterogeneity of the policy effects and mechanism of the“Belt and Road”initiative in Fujian Province and the other provinces and municipalities,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as continuously promoting the opening up of tourism,meeting the high-quality international tourism demand,promoting the balanced and stable development of the industry,gradually optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure,consolidating the accumulation of tourism production factors,comprehensively enhancing the advantages of production factors,and rationally adjusting government expenditure to perform active and limited government functions.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 入境旅游 政策效应 作用机制 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]