我国铁路产业财务可持续:一个基于结构方程的分析  

Financial Sustainability of China’s Railway Industry:An Analysis of the Structural Equation

作　　者：李红昌[1] 鲍越 王正锴 陈思斌 Li Hongchang;Bao Yue;Wang Zhengkai;Chen Sibin(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《技术经济》2021年第7期91-102,共12页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：2019年度济南市哲学社会科学规划项目“济南轨道交通产业发展思路及战略研究”(JNSK19B06)。

摘　　要：我国铁路建设所需的投资巨大,财务上已经形成了大量的债务性负担。为了实现我国铁路行业的财务可持续,首先要对影响国家铁路集团财务可持续的原因进行充分了解。以治理理论为核心,综合考虑多方面因素分析了中国国家铁路集团有限公司的财务可持续影响因素,通过问卷调查搜集数据,使用解释结构方程模型理清铁路负债的形成路径。结果表明:国家铁路集团的财务可持续是一个市场治理、社会治理、政府治理因素综合影响的结果,其中政府治理因素处于主导地位。建议化解铁路产业存量债务,构建铁路产业的公益性运输补贴机制,推进灵活票制票价实施等。China’s railway construction investment is huge,railway finance has formed a large amount of debt burden.In order to realize the financial sustainability of China’s railway industry,the reasons affecting the financial sustainability of the national railway group should be fully understood first.The governance theory is taken as the core,and the factors affecting financial sustainability of China National Railway Group Co.,Ltd.are analyzed comprehensively considering various factors.Data are collected through questionnaire survey,and the formation path of railway liabilities is clarified by using the interpretative structural equation model.The results show as follows.The financial sustainability of the national railway group is the result of the comprehensive influence of market governance,social governance and government governance,among which the government governance factor is in the dominant position.It is suggested to reduce the railway industry’s outstanding debts,establish a public welfare transport subsidy mechanism for the railway industry,and promote the implementation of flexible ticket pricing system.

关 键 词：铁道债成因 财务可持续 结构方程模型 

分 类 号：F532.1[经济管理—产业经济]