城市轨道交通突发事件下乘客出行选择影响因素研究  

Influencing Factors of Passenger Travel Choice under Urban Rail Transit Emergency Conditions

作　　者：李臣 陈艳艳[1] 周雨阳[1] 黄建玲 汪波 LI Chen;CHEN Yanyan;ZHOU Yuyang;HUANG Jianling;WANG Bo(Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Beijing Transportation Information Center,Beijing 100161,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学北京市交通工程重点实验室,北京100124 [2]北京市交通信息中心,北京100161

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2021年第7期105-111,共7页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1600900);北京市自然科学基金项目(L181002)。

摘　　要：为剖析城市轨道交通突发事件下乘客出行选择规律,提出基于Logit模型和非线性回归方法的乘客选择影响因素分析方法。首先,从乘客个体属性、出行属性和突发事件属性3个方面确定影响出行选择的主要因素,并进行敏感性分析,在此基础上提出客流浮动率与空间影响系数指标,探索乘客出行选择与时空属性的关系。结果表明:年龄、职业和收入对乘客选择有显著影响,通勤乘客倾向于城市轨道交通出行;乘客选择受事发时间影响明显,而受事发位置或出行距离单一指标影响较小,但空间影响系数对出行选择影响显著。研究可以为突发事件客流预测提供支持,并辅助制定突发客流疏散政策。This paper developed a method based on the Logit model and nonlinear regression to analyze the influencing factors of passenger choice with the aim of under standing the rule of passenger travel choice in case of an emergency in the urban rail transit(URT) system. The main factors influencing travel choice were determined first in terms of the individual attribute, travel attribute and emergency attribute, and the sensitivity analysis was carried out. Then two indexes, the deviation rate of passenger flow and spatial influence coefficient, were proposed for the further exploration of the relationship between passenger travel choice and spatial-temporal attributes. The results show that age, occupation, and income significantly influence travel choice. Commuters are more willing to choose URT when an emergency occurs. Meanwhile, passenger travel choice is greatly affected by the occurrence time of emergency and slightly affected by the emergency location or travel distance. Note worthily, the spatial influence coefficient has a significant impact on travel choice. This study can provide support for passenger flow prediction and assist in formulating evacuation policies for an emergency.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 出行选择影响因素 非集计理论 突发事件 时空属性 

分 类 号：U293.6[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]