昌吉州气象干旱特征及其对农业生产的影响分析  

Characteristics of meteorological drought and its impact on agriculture production in Changji prefecture

作　　者：叶尔克江·霍依哈孜 阿帕尔·肉孜 周国宏 黄健[2] HOYHAZI Erkejan;RUZI Apar;ZHOU Guo-hong;HUANG Jian(Changji Meteorological Bureau,Changji831100,Xinjiang,China;Institue of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi830002,China)

机构地区：[1]昌吉州气象局,新疆昌吉831100 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2021年第14期64-70,75,共8页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41775109);昌吉州科技项目(2020S03)。

摘　　要：利用昌吉回族自治州(简称昌吉州)10个气象站1961—2020年降水量及旱灾资料,分析昌吉州降水时空变化特征,计算各气象站月、季、年降水距平百分率,按降水距平百分率干旱指标选取干旱事件,详细分析不同时间尺度气象干旱的时空分布;对历史旱灾实际情况与降水距平百分率指标结果进行实用性评价;分析农作物成灾面积的逐年变化趋势,研究气象干旱对农业生产的影响。结果表明,近60年昌吉州降水量呈增加趋势,年内分布不均衡,夏季降水量最大,冬季降水量最小;从年代上看出20世纪80年代之前降水量整体偏少且变化不稳定,20世纪80年代初开始逐年增加,且1983年发生了突变性增加,1998年增加明显,进入21世纪以来增加平缓。60年来气象干旱发生的频次有中部多于西部和东部的特点。气象干旱发生的月频次呈波动状,其中1月最多,7月次之,11月最少;气象干旱主要是秋旱,冬旱次之,主要以轻旱为主。气象干旱事件发生的年频次逐渐减少。60年来受气象干旱影响,阜康市、吉木萨尔、奇台、木垒县农作物成灾面积较大,受灾程度严重,蔡家湖、昌吉市次之,玛纳斯县、呼图壁县较小,受灾程度轻,气象干旱灾害造成的农作物成灾面积呈减少趋势。降水距平百分率评定的旱灾年与历史旱灾年吻合年数为21年,吻合率达80%。Based on the precipitation and drought data of 1961—2020 from 10 meteorological stations in Changji prefecture,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of precipitation in Changji prefecture were analyzed,and the monthly,seasonal and annual precipitation anomaly percentage of each meteorological station was calculated.The drought events were selected according to the drought index of precipitation anomaly percentage,and the spatial and temporal distribution of meteorological drought at different time scales was analyzed in detail.The actual situation of historical drought and the evaluation results of precipitation anomaly percentage index were evaluated for practicability.The change trend of crop disaster area year by year was analyzed,and the influence of meteorological drought on agricultural production was studied.The results showed that the precipitation in Changji prefecture increased in recent 60 years,and the annual distribution was uneven,with the maximum precipitation in summer and the minimum precipitation in winter.It can be seen from the chronology that the precipitation was relatively small and unstable before the 1980s,and it began to increase year by year in the early 1980s.In 1983,there was a sudden increase,and the increase was obvious in 1998,and the increase was gentle since the 21st century.The frequency of meteorological drought in the past 60 years is more in central China than in western and eastern China.The monthly frequency of meteorological drought fluctuated,the most in January,the second in July,and the least in November.The main meteorological drought is autumn drought,winter drought is the second,mainly light drought.The annual frequency of meteorological drought events decreased gradually.Under the influence of meteorological drought in the past 60 years,the crop disaster area in Fukang city,Jimusar,Qitai and Mulei county was larger and the disaster degree was serious,followed by Caijiahu and Changji city,and Manas and Hutubi county were smaller and the disaster degree

关 键 词：降水量 降水距平百分率 气象干旱 农业生产 对比分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]