技术创新与美国经济波动——基于1983—2008年美国两次经济周期的分析  

Technological innovation and American economic fluctuation——An analysis based on the two economic cycles of the United States from 1983 to 2008

作　　者：刘雨 郭剑雄 LIU Yu;GUO Jian-xiong(Shaanxi Normal University,Xi′an 710119 China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《新余学院学报》2021年第4期38-46,共9页Journal of Xinyu University

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究专项任务项目“金融资本全球扩张与金融危机国际传染”(12JD710061)。

摘　　要：2008年由次级贷款引起的美国以及全球金融危机和经济危机已经过去了13年,直到目前仍没有明显的复苏迹象。分析表明,2008年经济危机不是一次朱格拉周期所引发的一般的经济衰退,而是一次库兹涅茨长周期所导致的国民经济的大波动。这次库兹涅茨周期包括两个经济效果完全相反的产业周期:第一个周期是1983年到2000年,由PC-IT产业创新冲击所引起的制造业周期,它创造了美国经济史上罕见的204个月的扩张和繁荣期;第二个周期是2000年4月到2008年,由货币扩张和信贷金融投机所引发的建筑业和房地产业的大波动,它导致了2008年开始的美国以至全球经济的大萧条。It has been 13 years since the global financial crisis and economic crisis in the United States and the world caused by subprime mortgage loans in 2008,and there is still no obvious sign of recovery until now.The analysis shows that the 2008 economic crisis was not a general economic recession caused by a Juglar cycle,but a large fluctuation of the national economy caused by a long Kuznets cycle.This Kuznets cycle includes two industrial cycles with completely opposite economic effects:the manufacturing cycle caused by the impact of PC-IT industry innovation,which created a rare 204-month period of expansion and prosperity in the history of the American economy;The second cycle was from April 2000 to 2008,it was the great fluctuations in the construction and real estate industries caused by money creation and credit financial speculation,which led to the great depression of the United States and even the global economy in 2008.

关 键 词：技术创新 PC-IT产业 大繁荣 货币扩张 金融危机 大萧条 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F171