连续时间多维T-S动态故障树分析方法  

Continuous-time Multi-dimensional T-S Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis Methodology

作　　者：陈东宁[1,2] 许敬宇 姚成玉[3] 潘昊洋 胡彦龙 CHEN Dongning;XU Jingyu;YAO Chengyu;PAN Haoyang;HU Yanlong(Hebei Provincial Key Laboratory of Heavy Machinery Fluid Power Transmission and Control,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004;Key Laboratory of Advanced Forging&Stamping Technology and Science(Yanshan University),Ministry of Education of China,Qinhuangdao 066004;Key Laboratory of Industrial Computer Control Engineering of Hebei Province,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学河北省重型机械流体动力传输与控制重点实验室,秦皇岛066004 [2]先进锻压成型技术与科学教育部重点实验室(燕山大学),秦皇岛066004 [3]燕山大学河北省工业计算机控制工程重点实验室,秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《机械工程学报》2021年第10期231-244,共14页Journal of Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51975508,51675460);中国博士后科学基金(2017M621101);河北省自然科学基金(E2021203061)资助项目。

摘　　要：复杂系统的可靠性往往受工作时间、应力冲击、工作温度等多因素影响,仅考虑工作时间单一因素的故障树分析方法存在局限性,提出考虑工作时间、应力冲击、工作温度等多因素影响的连续时间多维T-S动态故障树分析(Continuous-time multi-dimensional T-S dynamic fault tree analysis,CM-TSdFTA)方法。构造多因素影响下的下级事件故障概率密度函数,基于下级事件的顺序规则及上级事件的输出规则提出T-S动态门及其事件顺序描述规则构建方法,给出基于规则执行可能性、上级事件发生可能性的上级事件故障概率分布函数计算方法。CM-TSdFTA不仅可以描述事件间静、动态失效行为,还能对多因素影响下的系统可靠性进行分析。通过与空间故障树、Dugan动态故障树、离散时间T-S动态故障树分析方法进行对比,验证了所提CM-TSdFTA的可行性。最后,给出了所提方法的工程分析案例。The reliability of complex systems is often affected by multivariate factors,such as operating time,stress impact,temperature and so on.The fault tree analysis method considering only one factor has some limitations.To solve the above problems,the continuous-time multi-dimensional T-S dynamic fault tree analysis(CM-TSdFTA)methodology considering the multi-factor influence of service time,stress impact and temperature is proposed.Firstly,the probability density function of lower-level events under the influence of multivariate factors is constructed.Based on the sequence rule of lower-level events and the output rule of higher-level events,the method of constructing T-S dynamic gates and their sequential description rules of continuous-time events is proposed.Then,the calculation and analysis method of higher-level event probability distribution function of the continuous-time based on the possibility of execution of rules and occurrence of higher-level event is proposed.CM-TSdFTA methodology can not only describe the static and dynamic logic and relationship between events,but also carry out multi-dimensional reliability analysis for systems whose reliability is affected by factors.Compared with space fault tree,Dugan dynamic fault tree and discrete-time T-S dynamic fault tree analysis method,the feasibility of the proposed CM-TSd FTA methodology is verified.Finally,the engineering analysis instance based on the proposed methodology is given.

关 键 词：动态故障树 多维T-S动态故障树 连续时间 T-S动态门 

分 类 号：TB114[理学—概率论与数理统计]