中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放的库兹涅茨曲线检验  

Kuznets Curve Test on Embodied Carbon of China’s Agricultural Export Trade

作　　者：戴育琴 李谷成[2] Dai Yuqin;Li Gucheng(College of Economics and Trade,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China;College of Economics&Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工商大学经济与贸易学院,长沙410205 [2]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《统计与决策》2021年第13期63-67,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71873050);湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会项目(XSP19YBC375);湖南省教育厅一般项目(18C0617)。

摘　　要：文章首先运用投入产出法测度2001—2017年我国28个省份的农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放量;然出口贸易隐含碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的存在性;最后计算农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放拐点出现的时间。结果表明,我国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放和经济增长之间存在环境库兹涅茨曲线"倒U"型关系。基于人均省份到达农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放拐点所需时间和预计年份各不一样。东部沿海经济发达地区的省份出现农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放拐点的时间普遍较早,大部分出现在2025年前后;其次是中部地区的省份,拐点出现在2030年左右;西部地区的省份拐点出现最晚。这意味着各省份应根据各自农业经济技术发展水平确定农业低碳贸易政策。This paper firstly uses the input-output method to measure the embodied carbon emission of agricultural export trade in 28 provinces of China from 2001 to 2017, then constructs an environmental Kuznets curve model for the embodied carbon and uses the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2017 to empirically test the existence of the Kuznets curve for the embodied carbon of China’s agricultural export trade. Finally, the paper estimates the timing of the inflection point of the embodied carbon of agricultural export trade. The results are shown as follows: There is an"inverted U"shaped relationship of environmental Kuznets curve between the embodied carbon of China’s agricultural export trade and economic growth. Based on the average annual growth rate of per capita GDP, the inflection point of the embodied carbon of China’s agricultural export trade will appear in 2029 and 2036. By provinces, the time required to reach the inflection point of the embodied carbon of agricultural export trade and the predicted year are different. The inflection points of embodied carbon of agricultural export trade for the provinces in the developed eastern coastal areas generally appear earlier, most of which will appear around 2025. Then, for the provinces in the central region,the inflection point will appear around 2030. The provinces of the western region are the latest to turn the corner. The above results mean that each province should determine the agricultural low-carbon trade policies according to their own agricultural economic and technological development levels.

关 键 词：农产品出口 隐含碳排放 投入产出法 库兹涅茨曲线 拐点 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]