中国能源消费结构及天然气需求预测  

China’s Energy Consumption Structure and Forecast on Natural Gas Demand

作　　者：李洪兵 张吉军[1] LI Hongbing;ZHANG Jijun(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《生态经济》2021年第8期71-78,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：四川省科技计划项目“四川天然气供需预测预警机制研究”(2021JDR0241)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”目标下,中国能源消费结构正发生着深刻的变化。根据近20年的经济发展、能源消费量等演变趋势,利用能源消费弹性系数预测2030年中国能源消费量,并构建各能源消费增量贡献值模型,预测各能源消费量。研究结果表明:(1)2000—2030年,中国经济发展可分为规模速度型、换挡转速及高质量发展三个阶段,与能源的高耗能粗放发展、粗放转向高质量发展及高质量平稳发展三个阶段相对应;(2)预测2030年中国能源消费总量为588464万~616762万吨标准煤,其中煤炭占比降为46%左右,石油占比缓慢增至20%,天然气占比快速攀升至15%,电力占比稳步增至19%左右,届时天然气的消费增量贡献值最大,为0.15;(3)2000—2030年,天然气增速较快,天然气将成为中国经济发展过程中最具有需求潜力的高效、低碳能源。Under the“dual carbon”goal,China’s energy consumption structure is undergoing profound changes.According to the evolutionary trends of economic development and energy consumption in the past 20 years,the paper uses the elasticity of energy consumption to predict China’s energy consumption in 2030,and builds a model of the incremental contribution value of energy consumption to predict real energy consumption.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2030,China’s economic development can be divided into three stages:scale speed type,shift speed and high-quality development,corresponding to the three stages of high energy consumption extensive development,extensive to high-quality development and high-quality stable development;(2)It is predicted that China’s total energy consumption in 2030 will be 5884.64 million-6167.62 million tons of standard coal,of which the proportion of coal will drop to about 46%,the proportion of oil will slowly increase to 20%,the proportion of natural gas will rapidly rise to 15%,and the proportion of electric power will steadily increase to about 19%.At that time,the incremental contribution value of natural gas consumption will be the largest,which is 0.15;(3)From 2000 to 2030,natural gas will grow at the fastest rate,and natural gas will become the highefficiency and low-carbon energy source with the greatest demand potential in China’s economic development.

关 键 词：能源消费 天然气 经济增速 能源消费增量贡献值 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]