城镇化与文旅融合发展的动态关联研究——基于产业融合视角的PVAR模型分析  

Research on the Dynamic Correlation between the Urbanization and Integration of Culture and Tourism:A PVAR Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Integration

作　　者：陈红玲[1] 郑馨 CHEN Hongling;ZHENG Xin(Business School,Guangxi University,Nanning Guangxi 530004,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学商学院,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《生态经济》2021年第8期112-117,125,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：2019年度国家自然科学基金项目“基于网络视角的健康旅游地复杂系统演化发展过程、动力机制研究”(41861027);广西哲学社会科学规划项目“广西康养旅游发展的影响因素与提升路径研究”(20FJY043);2020年广西发展战略研究院基金项目“广西康养旅游高质量发展策略研究”(2020GDSIYB11)。

摘　　要：基于2010—2018年省级面板数据,从产业融合视角构建文旅融合评价指标体系,在分析文旅融合水平时空演变的基础上,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,通过脉冲响应和方差分解分析变量间的关系。研究发现,(1)2010—2018年我国文化和旅游融合水平偏低但呈上升趋势,其特征为东高西低。(2)从全国范围看,我国城镇化与文旅融合都存在依赖自身发展惯性的现象;城镇化对文旅融合具有正向影响,文旅融合对城镇化有负向影响。(3)从东部、中部、西部三大地区看,三大地区城镇化与文旅融合发展具有地区差异,东部、西部地区为城镇化和文旅融合发展的惯性区,中部地区为惰性区;三大地区文旅融合对城镇化均呈负向影响;中部地区城镇化对文旅融合的影响最大,而东部地区最小。Based on the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2018,the evaluation index system of cultural and tourism integration was constructed from the perspective of industrial integration.Based on the analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of cultural and tourism integration level,the panel vector auto-regressive(PVAR)model was used to analyze the relationship between variables through impulse response and variance decomposition.The results show that:(1)The level of cultural and tourism integration in China is low but rising from 2010 to 2018,which is characterized by a high level in the east and a low level in the west.(2)From a national perspective,China’s urbanization and cultural and tourism integration are both dependent on their own development inertia;Urbanization has a positive impact on cultural and tourism integration,while cultural and tourism integration has a negative impact on urbanization.(3)From the perspective of the eastern,central and western regions,there are regional differences in the integration of urbanization and cultural and tourism development in the three regions.The eastern and western regions are the inertia areas of the integration of urbanization and cultural and tourism development,while the central region is the inert area.Cultural and tourism integration in the three regions has a negative impact on urbanization.Urbanization in central China has the greatest impact on cultural and tourism integration,while the eastern region has the least impact.

关 键 词：文旅融合 城镇化 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]