基于TVP-VAR的人民币国际化与人民币OFDI互动效应研究  

A Study on the Interaction between RMB Internationalization and RMB OFDI based on TVP-VAR

作　　者：古广东[1] 李慧 Gu Guang-dong;Li Hui

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《亚太经济》2021年第4期33-42,共10页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

摘　　要：利用时变参数的向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR),分析人民币国际化与人民币OFDI之间的互动效应,并从人民币的国际货币职能出发建立数理模型,考察其对人民币OFDI的作用。同时,考虑到经济实力可能影响人民币国际化和人民币OFDI,故将经济实力这一变量纳入模型中加以考察,建立时变参数的向量自回归模型,以考察各变量之间的互动效应。结果表明,人民币国际支付结算职能和国际储藏职能均与人民币OFDI呈现相互促进的关系,而人民币国际计价职能与人民币OFDI呈现出相互制约的关系。进一步的分析还发现,经济实力、人民币国际支付结算职能和国际储藏职能对人民币OFDI的影响具有同步趋势,表明这三者对人民币OFDI的影响可能存在同一中间影响机制。最后,给出文章的结论及相关建议。This paper analyzes the interaction between RMB internationalization and RMB OFDI by using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model(TVP-VAR),and establishes a mathematical model based on the three international functions of RMB to investigate the effect on RMB OFDI.At the same time,considering that economic strength may affect RMB internationalization and RMB OFDI,the variable of economic strength is included in the model for investigation,and on this basis,a vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters is established to investigate the interaction effect among the variables.The results show that the international payment and settlement function and the storage function of RMB have a mutually promoting relationship with RMB OFDI,while the valuation function of RMB has a mutually restrictive relationship with RMB OFDI.Further analysis also found that economic strength,RMB’s international payment and settlement function and storage function had a synchronous influence on RMB’s OFDI,indicating that these three factors may have the same intermediate influence mechanism on RMB’s OFDI.Finally,the conclusion and relevant suggestions are given.

关 键 词：人民币OFDI 人民币国际化 国际货币职能 互动效应 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]