基于残差灰色预测模型的大红山铁矿地表沉降位移预测研究  

Research on Prediction of Surface Subsidence Displacement in Dahongshan Iron Mine Based on Residual Grey Prediction Model

作　　者：余正方 YU Zhengfang(YuxiDahongshan Mining Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]玉溪大红山矿业有限公司党委,云南省玉溪市653405

出　　处：《现代矿业》2021年第7期78-80,共3页Modern Mining

摘　　要：随着地下金属矿山采深的逐渐增加,开采沉陷问题越来越突出。为预测大红山铁矿地表沉降位移,根据1125 m台阶监测点所收集的地表沉降位移数据,建立了残差灰色预测模型。并采用方差比和小概率误差检验方式对预测结果与实际值进行了分析。结果表明,所得到预测结果与实测结果吻合良好,验证了该预测方法的工程适用性。为金属矿山地下开采诱发的地表变形和岩体移动预测提供了借鉴。With the gradual increase of mining depth in underground metal mines,the problem of mining subsidence is becoming more and more prominent.In order to predict the surface subsidence displacement of Dahongshan Iron Mine,a residual grey prediction model was established based on the surface subsidence displacement data collected from 1125 m step monitoring points.The variance ratio and small probability error test are used to analyze the predicted results and the actual values.The results show that the predicted results are in good agreement with the measured results,which verifies the engineering applicability of the prediction method.It provides a reference for the prediction of surface deformation and rock movement induced by underground mining in metal mines.

关 键 词：地下金属矿山 开采沉陷 残差灰色预测 沉降监测 

分 类 号：TD325[矿业工程—矿井建设]