浙江某省级医院入院人次变动及趋势分析  

Analysis of Change and Trend of Hospital Admissions in a Zhejiang Provincial Hospital

作　　者：李慧 丁丽萍[1] LI Hui;DING Li-ping(Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital/People's Hospital of Hangzou Medical College)

机构地区：[1]浙江省人民医院/杭州医学院附属人民医院

出　　处：《医院管理论坛》2021年第6期30-33,57,共5页Hospital Management Forum

摘　　要：目的分析某省级三甲综合医院入院人次变动及趋势,为医院优化医疗服务资源配置和精细化管理提供科学依据。方法研究采用移动平均法和季节指数法对医院2010―2019年10年间全院、内科、外科入院人次及季度和月度入院人次数据及变动进行分析,以客观反映医院入院人次的变动规律和变化趋势。结果全院、内科、外科入院人次均呈现逐年增长趋势。从季度变化看:第2、3、4季度均为入院“旺季”,第1季度为入院“淡季”,其中内科季节指数最大值为第2季度,全院和外科最大值为第3季度。从月度变化看:1―9月全院、内科、外科入院变动趋势相似,10―12月全院和内科入院变动呈上升趋势,外科呈下降趋势;每年入院最低谷均为2月,入院最高峰分别为7月、5月、7月。结论全院、内科、外科入院人次的季节变动趋势既具有共性,也存在差异。患者入院“淡季”和“旺季”的变化特征对医院合理配置医疗服务资源、优化住院服务具有重要的指导作用。Objective To analyze the changes and trends of hospital admissions in a provincial-level grade-A tertiary general hospital,and provide a scientific basis for the hospital to optimize the allocation of medical service resources and lean management.Methods Research uses moving average method and seasonal index method to analyze the data and its changes of yearly,quarterly and monthly admissions of the whole hospital,internal medicine department,and surgery department from 2010 to 2019,so as to objectively reflect the changing rules and trends of hospital admissions.Results The number of admissions in the whole hospital,internal medicine,and surgery showed an increasing trend year by year.From the perspective of quarterly changes:the second,third,and fourth quarters are the"peak season"for admissions,and the first quarter is the"off season"for admissions.The maximum value of the internal medicine seasonal index is in the second quarter,and the maximum value of the hospital and surgery is in the third quarter.From the perspective of monthly changes:from January to September,the admissions of the whole hospital,internal medicine department,and surgery department had similar trends;and from October to December,the admissions of the whole hospital and internal medicine department showed rising trend while the were surgery department showed falling trend.The lowest admissions were in February each year,and the highest admissions were in July and May.Conclusion The seasonal trends of hospital admissions,internal medicine department,and surgery department have both common features and differences.The changing characteristics of the"off season"and"peak season"of patients admitted to the hospital play an important guiding role in the rational allocation of medical service resources and the optimization of inpatient services.

关 键 词：入院人次 季节指数分析 移动平均分析 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]