感潮河段上游洪水与河口潮位遭遇研究  

Research on Encounter of Floods and Tides in the Tidal Watercourse

作　　者：彭慧[1] 刘璐 姜钧耀 孟含威 王翊人[1] 李光吉[1] PENG Hui;LIU Lu;JIANG Junyao;MENG Hanwei;WANG Yiren;LI Guangji(Shandong Survey and Design Institute of Water Conservancy,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省水利勘测设计院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《人民黄河》2021年第8期44-47,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(201501054)。

摘　　要：采用定性分析和定量计算相结合的方法研究洪水与潮位遭遇,首先采用定性分析法确定洪水与潮位遭遇可行方案集,再利用洪水与潮位遭遇的组合风险概率模型定量计算各种可行方案集的风险率,统筹考虑防洪安全及工程投资,最终确定洪水与潮位遭遇最优方案。以小清河为例的研究表明:洪潮遭遇可行方案集为50 a一遇洪水遭遇5~50 a一遇潮位,最优组合为50 a一遇洪水遭遇20 a一遇潮位;潮洪遭遇可行方案集为50 a一遇潮位遭遇3~140 a一遇洪水,最优组合为50 a一遇潮位遭遇20 a一遇洪水;超标准洪水遭遇高潮潮位的发生风险较低,高潮位遭遇中小洪水的发生风险较高。The qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation were put forward to obtain the reasonableencounter scheme between floods and tides.First the qualitative analysis was used to obtain the feasible schemes.Then the probabilistic models were built based on Copula function.Finally the optimal scheme was adopted by balancing the safety and investment.The application of Xiaoqinghe River illustrates that the optimal schemes are 50-year floods encountering 20-year tides and 50-year tides encountering 20-year floods.Using the two schemes to analyze water level respectively,the maximum levels are used to river regulation design.Moreover,the typical year analysis results show that the risk of excess criteria floods encountering tides is infrequent and the risk of excess tides encountering criteria floods is frequent.

关 键 词：洪水与潮位遭遇 定性分析 COPULA函数 组合风险率模型 小清河 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]