基于计量回归方法的铁路运输能耗因素影响作用研究  

Research on the Effect of Factors Influencing Railway Transportation Energy Consumption Based on Econometric Regression

作　　者：王铁城 WANG Tiecheng(Department of Business Development,China Railway Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100844,China)

机构地区：[1]中国国家铁路集团有限公司经营开发部,北京100844

出　　处：《铁道经济研究》2021年第4期10-15,共6页Railway Economics Research

摘　　要：随着铁路迅速发展,铁路运输能耗量也在持续高速攀升。为分析铁路运输能耗水平与人均国内生产总值、第三产业占比、城市化水平、人口密度和铁路运输能耗强度之间的关系,研究选取国内20个具有代表性城市作为研究对象。面板数据通过多重共线性和面板单位根检验后,文章建立了基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论的计量回归模型。之后,对所建立的模型使用可行广义最小二乘法进行参数标定。发现人均GDP与人均铁路运输能耗之间存在倒U型曲线关系,但目前的经济发展还未达到曲线转折点。人口密度增加、第三产业占比扩大和能耗强度下降会减少人均铁路能耗量,但城市化水平上升对其产生正向作用。研究据此提出了相应的优化节能建议。With the rapid development of railway,the energy consumption of railway transportation continues to rise rapidly.To explore the relation-ship between energy consumption level of railway transportation and per capita GDP,proportion of tertiary industry,urbanization level,population density and energy consumption intensity of railway transportation,20 representative cities in China are selected as the research objects.After the panel data pass through multicollinearity and panel unit root test,the article establishes an econometric regression model based on the theory of En-vironmental Kuznets curve.Then,the parameters of the proposed model are calibrated by the feasible generalized least square method.This research finds that the relationship between per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption of railway transportation is an inverted U-shaped curve,but the current economic development has not reached the turning point of the curve.The increase of population density,the expansion of the proportion of tertiary industry and the decrease of energy consumption intensity will reduce the per capita energy consumption of railway transportation,while the urbanization level has positive effects on it.Accordingly,the corresponding suggestions for energy saving are proposed in this study.

关 键 词：铁路运输能耗 环境库兹涅茨理论 计量经济回归 建模研究 

分 类 号：F532[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]