基于状态依存矩阵的电力信息物理系统风险传播分析  

Risk Propagation Analysis of Cyber-Physical Power System Based on State Dependence Matrix

作　　者：胡怡霜 丁一[1] 朱忆宁 包铭磊 HU Yishuang;DING Yi;ZHU Yining;BAO Minglei(College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China;International Campus,Zhejiang University,Haining 314400,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]浙江大学国际联合学院,浙江省海宁市314400

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2021年第15期1-10,共10页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71871200);国家电网公司科技项目(5211JY180012)。

摘　　要：在电力信息物理系统中,风险可以从信息层向电力层传播,针对电力信息物理系统的风险传播研究尤为必要。考虑电力信息物理系统的风险传播路径,文中提出跨系统故障状态传播的最优化模型,计算得到电力信息物理系统风险传播的五阶段风险状态依存矩阵。同时,考虑电力信息物理系统各网络风险传播周期差异、物理和业务逻辑连接差异,对风险状态依存矩阵进行修正。针对电力信息物理系统外来因素和内部因素,量化分析风险管控能力和隐性故障对风险传播的影响。最后,通过仿真分析了不同风险来源、不同风险管控能力和存在隐性故障的情景下,风险传播和风险高敏感性节点的变化情况。In the cyber-physical power system(CPPS), the risk can propagate from the cyber space to the power system. Thus, it is necessary to study the risk propagation of CPPS. Considering the risk propagation paths of CPPS, this paper proposes an optimization model of cross-system failure state propagation, and the risk state dependence matrices of CPPS in five risk propagation stages can be calculated. Considering the differences in risk propagation cycles and the differences in physical and business logical connections in the networks of CPPS, the risk state dependency matrices are modified. Considering the external and internal factors of CPPS, the impacts of risk control ability and hidden failures on risk propagation are quantified. Finally,simulations are used to analyze the risk propagation and the changes of risk-sensitive nodes in the scenarios of different risk sources,different risk control abilities, and hidden failure.

关 键 词：电力信息物理系统 风险传播 最优化模型 风险状态依存矩阵 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]