威慑与防御:北约对俄罗斯“抵近钳制”的北极拐点  

Deterrence and Defense:the Arctic Inflection Point of NATO's“Proximity Clamp”on Russia

作　　者：肖洋[1] Xiao Yang(School of International Relations,BISU)

机构地区：[1]北京第二外国语学院政党外交学院

出　　处：《和平与发展》2021年第4期47-65,136,共20页Peace and Development

基　　金：作者主持的国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘冰上丝绸之路’倡议下北极经济发展的国际协调机制研究”(项目批准号:19BGJ076)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：布鲁塞尔峰会进一步强化了北约与俄罗斯的战略对峙。为进一步挤压俄罗斯地缘发展空间,北约在俄西部和北部地区进行军事部署,从南北、东西两个维度对俄罗斯进行纵横式“抵近钳制”攻势,推动传统防区与新兴防区的地缘链接。“纵钳”重点攻防以波罗的海-黑海国家为核心的中东欧地区,“横钳”重点攻防以巴伦支海-白令海为核心的北极航道端点地区。研究“抵近钳制”攻势,有助于深入解析北约安全策略的变化,揭示欧亚安全格局的发展趋向。北约实施“东西夹击、南北合围”的战略布局,采取一系列措施逐渐闭合在北极地区的围堵链条,使得俄罗斯陷入“三面受敌”困境。但是,北约缺乏全面围堵俄罗斯的能力,也无法有效应对俄北极军事化的反制措施,以及阻止俄北极大开发战略施行。北极将是北约围堵俄罗斯的力竭之地,亦是俄突破北约地缘钳制的最佳选区。The Brussels Summit has further intensified the strategic confrontation between NATO and Russia. To further squeeze Russia’s geo development space, NATO has made military deployments to the west and north of Russia in order to put on a vertical(north-south) and horizontal(eastwest) "proximity clamp" on Russia by promoting geo-alignment between traditional and emerging defense areas. The "vertical clamp" focuses on Eastern and Central Europe including the Baltic and the Black Sea states, while the "horizontal clamp" centers on the end point areas of the Arctic sea routes between the Barents Sea and the Bering Strait. Studying NATO’s "proximity clamp" offensive is conducive to an in-depth interpretation of the changes in NATO’s security strategies and revealing the development trend of the Eurasian security landscape. Although NATO’s vertical and horizontal strategic clamp on Russia has put the latter in a dilemma to face containment in three directions, NATO is incapable of containing Russia on all sides, and moreover it is impossible for NATO to respond effectively to Russia’s counter efforts to militarize the Arctic and halt the implementation of Russia’s strategy to develop the Arctic in an all-round way. In such a case, the Arctic is a drain on NATO’s capacity to contain Russia comprehensively and also the best place for Russia to breach NATO’s geo and strategic clamp on Russia.

关 键 词：北极安全 北约 俄罗斯 抵近钳制 北极航道 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]