长江经济带农村相对贫困格局及区域承载力约束机理  

Spatial pattern of rural relative poverty and constraint mechanism of regional carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：周侃[1,2] 樊杰 孙勇[3] Zhou Kan;Fan Jie;Sun Yong(Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049 [3]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2021年第11期249-258,I0005,共11页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0406);国家自然科学基金项目(41971164,41630644);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA23020101)。

摘　　要：随着中国反贫困重点由消除绝对贫困转变为全面实施乡村振兴、系统解决相对贫困,亟需定量揭示农村相对贫困与区域承载力之间的作用关系,为同步制定缓解相对贫困和增加区域承载力的干预措施提供科学依据。该研究以长江经济带为例,通过农村相对贫困区界定及变化类型识别,从流域、县域及主体功能区多尺度解析2010年以来农村相对贫困区的时空演化过程,建立由土地资源、水资源、环境、生态、灾害和交通6个要素构成的区域承载力指标体系,定量评价农村相对贫困受区域承载力的约束程度及致贫作用。结果表明:长江经济带农村相对贫困空间格局呈总体稳定、局部收缩态势,且以重点生态功能区为主,稳定分布于乌蒙山区、武陵山区、罗霄山区、滇桂黔石漠化区以及滇西边境山区,已消除农村相对贫困的县域主要位于城市群地区或中心城市外围;逻辑斯蒂回归模型估计结果表明,交通、生态和灾害承载力是导致长江经济带农村相对贫困的重要因素,这3类要素约束程度每提升1个等级,发生相对贫困的概率将提高120.85%、30.59%、42.43%,城市化地区、农产品主产区致贫概率仅为生态功能区的19.87%、66.00%。建议基于区域承载力约束程度和地域功能类型,瞄准农民生计资本和区域综合效益增值设计差异化的反贫困政策体系,探索实现农民可持续生计和农村相对贫困区可持续发展的“个体+区域”互动融合发展模式。Rural poverty was a persistent problem in human society,and a common challenge faced by the whole world,where China is no exception.Many untiring efforts have been made to completely eliminate absolute poverty in China to achieve the goal of poverty reduction 10 years ahead of schedule in the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.After that,the anti-poverty focus has changed into rural relative poverty since 2020.It is necessary to continuously narrow the development gap between urban and rural areas,thereby promoting the rationed sharing of development achievements.It is highly urgent to quantitatively determine the relationship between rural relative poverty and regional carrying capacity,thereby providing a scientific basis for the simultaneous formulation of intervention measures.Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)as the case area,this study aims to explore the spatial pattern of rural relative poverty and the constraint mechanism of regional carrying capacity.Multi-source databases were established using 1070 county-level administrative units,including the rural social economy,resources,environment,road traffic,and major function zones.The areas of rural relative poverty were defined to identify the change types.The spatio-temporal evolution of rural relative poverty areas since 2010 was then determined from the multi-scale of the river basin,county,and major function zones.At the same time,an index system of regional carrying capacity was established to quantitatively evaluate the level of relative poverty restricted by regional carrying capacity in rural areas of YREB.Six elements were composed of land resources,water resources,environment,ecology,disaster,and transportation.Furthermore,the hierarchical clustering and binary logistic regression model were used to clarify the poverty-causing effect and the constraint level of regional carrying capacity.The results showed that:1)The number and population size of rural relative poverty areas in the YREB decreased from 353 and 133.666

关 键 词：农村地区 可持续发展 反贫困 农村相对贫困 区域承载力 致贫机理 长江经济带 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]