基于参考依赖理论的出行者路径选择模型研究  

Study on Traveler’s Route Choice Model Based on Reference Dependence Theory

作　　者：赖元文[1] 胡亮 林力 LAI Yuan-wen;HU Liang;LIN Li(School of Civil Engineering,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou Fujian 350116,China;CCCC Highway Consultants Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100088,China;Fujian Communications Planning&Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou Fujian 350004,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学土木工程学院,福建福州350116 [2]中交公路规划设计院有限公司,北京100088 [3]福建省交通规划设计院有限公司,福建福州350004

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2021年第7期131-137,共7页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

摘　　要：为了更好地解释和指导出行者的路径选择行为,有必要对个体出行路径选择行为进行多角度多方位研究,以期建立适用不同决策情景的模型。从出行行为的角度出发,以私家车出行者为研究对象,假设个体当前决策行为受参考状态的影响。在参考依赖理论的基本框架上,选取出行时间和费用两个影响因素建立单次出行的路径选择模型。通过设计问卷调查,应用最小二乘法和遗传算法对高时间价值和低时间价值类型出行者的模型参数进行标定。结果表明:对所研究对象进行分类之后,标定不同的模型参数能够较好地描述出行者的路径选择行为。2种类型出行者时间的损失规避参数和费用损失规避参数均大于1,出行者在时间属性和费用属性上都存在损失规避现象,损失会比等量的收益对出行者带来更大的心理效用;出行者对于时间的损失规避程度要高于费用的损失规避程度,即出行者对时间损失的敏感性更高;不同时间价值类型出行者有不同的损失规避系数,从而表现出不同的路径选择结果。高时间价值出行者的时间损失规避参数比低时间价值出行者高,时间损失对其造成的影响作用较大。在费用属性上高时间价值出行者的费用损失参数会比低时间价值出行者低。In order to better explain and guide the traveler’s route choice behavior,it is necessary to conduct multi-angle and multi-directional research on individual travel route choice behavior to establish the models suitable for different decision-making scenarios.From the perspective of travel behavior,taking private car travelers as the research object,assuming that the individual’s current decision-making behavior is affected by reference state.Based on the basic framework of reference dependence theory,a single travel route choice model is established with the selected 2 influencing factors(travel time and cost).Through the design of a questionnaire survey,the model parameters of travelers with high and low time value types are calibrated by using the least square method and genetic algorithm.The result shows that(1)after classifying the research objects,calibrating different model parameters can better describe the traveler’s route choice behavior;(2)the time loss avoidance parameters and cost loss avoidance parameters of the 2 types of travelers are both greater than 1,travelers have loss avoidance in both time attributes and cost attributes,and the loss will bring greater psychology effectiveness to the travelers than the same amount of profit;(3)the degree of time loss avoidance by travelers is higher than the degree of cost loss avoidance,i.e.,travelers are more sensitive to time loss;(4)there are different loss avoidance coefficients for travelers of different time value types,thus showing different route choice behaviors;(5)the time loss avoidance coefficient of high time value travelers are higher than that of low time value travelers,and the influence of time loss on the former is greater;(6)in terms of cost attributes,the cost loss coefficient of high time value travelers will be lower than that of low time value travelers.

关 键 词：城市交通 出行者路径选择模型 参考依赖理论 私家车出行者 时间价值 

分 类 号：U491.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]